Labour win shock victory in Hamilton by-election defying bookies’ odds
SCOTTISH Labour has won a shock victory in the Holyrood by-election – defying bookies’ odds.
And the win is a major boost to Anas Sarwar’s hopes of beating John Swinney to Bute House at next year’s Holyrood election.
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Scottish Labour had been written off by many, with bookies putting them third most likely to win the seat behind both the SNP and Reform.
Punters were offered odds of 11-1 on Labour before polls opened, and the SNP were 1-6 favorites, with Reform second favourites.
However, the party has defied expectations and lived up to the quiet confidence from some insiders that they were always in the race.
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The victory is a stunning defeat for the SNP who believed the seat was an easy victory following the death of popular local Nats MSP Christina McKelvie.
Labour’s campaign was seen as low-key, and Mr Russell came in for criticism from rivals for avoiding TV appearances.
Chris Musson: Labour win stuns SNP – setting up a year of election drama
LABOUR is understandably cock-a-hoop after the sensational win in the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election.
The bookmakers had written them off. At times, I had to – although, in the last few days, it became clear that it was going to be very close.
The received wisdom – never trust it – was meant to be about Labour’s rapid fall from grace after this difficult first year in power at Westminster . . . and of course the rise of Reform.
Well, Nigel Farage certainly made a mark, with his party grabbing a quarter of the vote.
And it was undeniably a struggle for Labour.
But what most people seem to have failed to factor in is a serious lack of appetite for the SNP who were walloped in that General Election a year ago.
The Nats had a clear majority in this seat in 2021, yet Labour has overturned it despite Reform nicking a chunk of their voters since last year.
And they won despite the First Minister wrongly making out it was a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform – a claim which must have persuaded some SNP-Labour floating voters to back the Nats.
Chatter before the by-election in Labour circles was that Anas Sarwar may have to consider his position if his party was walloped.
Given this remarkable result, that question will doubtless be getting asked by some SNP members about Swinney today.
But Scottish Labour needs to push on if they hope to win in 2026.
Just look at those shares – and how close it was between Labour, the SNP, and Reform.
This was one of the most unpredictable by-elections I have seen, but we live in unpredictable times.
If this is a sign of things to come for the next year, then hang on to your hats – as it’s going to be one heck of a ride.
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Reacting to the victory Anas Sarwar said: “It is a tribute to a fantastic local candidate that has had to put up with pretty elitist and classist comments about him.
“But this man lives here, he is from here. The other candidates are going to leave this constituency tonight, whereas Davie is not leaving it tonight he lives here.
“He will be home with his neighbors and friends tonight who have supported him and voted for him.
“Let’s be clear about what has happened here tonight. I don’t just want to reflect on the result, I want to reflect on the conversations we are having on the doorstep.
“It is a demonstration of a few things. First people want a UK Labour Government to go further and faster in improving their lives.
“They want to feel that improvement in their lives and I think that is a clear message today.
“Secondly, they have had enough of this SNP Government after 18 years they have let Scotland down and let communities across the country down.
“Thirdly, they have rejected the politics of Nigel Farage and Reform and today the people of Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse have laid the first stone in that pathway to a Scottish Labour Government.”
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Speaking on the BBC Mr Sarwar said: “I think it’s important to note that we have, in this by-election, proven the pollsters wrong, the political commentators wrong, and the bookies wrong, and I think this has been one of those elections where the disconnect from the national mood music and what was happening on the ground was so stark.”
SNP leader John Swinney said: “Katy Loudon fought a superb SNP campaign, and I am disappointed that we did not win tonight.
“Labour won by an absolute landslide in this area less than a year ago – we came much closer tonight but the people of Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse have made clear that we still have work to do.
“Over the next few days, we will take time to consider the result fully.
“When I became leader of the SNP last year I made clear my intention to bring the party together and focus more than ever on standing up for the people of Scotland.
“During this campaign, we heard a lot of anger about the cost of living – and it is clearer than ever that Westminster control is making Scotland poorer, whether that is the damage of Brexit, the hike in energy bills, or the betrayal on the winter fuel payment.
“Between now and May’s election, I and the SNP will set out a vision of hope and optimism.
“We will show people in Scotland that a better future is possible by making decisions for ourselves – and that is how we will win in 2026.”
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Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said: “We’re delighted with a remarkable result, just a few hundred votes away from the SNP.
“Credit where credit’s due, Labour have won tonight and one should recognize that, but no one was predicting that we would do as well as this, to create a three-way marginal situation in Scottish politics just short of a year ahead of the Holyrood elections.
“And look, we’re thrilled to bits, our brilliant candidate Ross Lambie ran an outstanding campaign with his brilliant team, massive thanks to them.
“Of course, we’ve all got work to do, but this is a massive boost for us.”
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Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said: “There is nothing in this result to disturb what the broad picture that we have been anticipating given these polls.
“Yes, we should congratulate Labour, they have won and all due credit for that, but their share of the vote is slightly down on what it was in 2021.
“So, this is evidence that confirms the evidence of the opinion poll that the revival of the Labour Party that took place in the two years running up to the general election has indeed disappeared, that the party is indeed more or less back to where it was in 2021, but at the same time, with the SNP vote down by 17 points, here is more than ample evidence that indeed the SNP, while it might have steadied the ship psychologically, has still made very little progress in advancing on where it was at last summer.”
Sir John said: “Both the SNP and Labour Party need to think about how they are going to effectively deal with Reform.
“For all the complaints about Nigel Farage’s ad, it is not clear from this result that it did any damage, and I think I would point out to both the SNP and the Labour Party that what they ended up doing in this by-election campaign was give an awful lot of publicity to a message that they thought was not a very good idea.
“And one of the first rules in politics is to avoid scratching the itch of things you do not like because you simply end up potentially giving them airtime.”
