Ukraine-Russia: ‘Putin’s words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war’, experts warn

Vladimir Putin putting Russia‘s nuclear deterrent on ‘alert’ ‘sounds like a direct threat of nuclear war’, a Nobel Peace Prize winner has warned.

Dmitry Muratov, the editor of Moscow-based newspaper Novaya Gazeta, said the move meant ‘if Russia isn’t treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed’.

He also pointed out calls from the West for political elites there to overthrow their president were redundant because ‘they always take the side of the ruler’.

A US defence official also warned Putin could be tempted to turn to his nuclear arsenal if he keeps being frustrated by his stumbling Ukraine invasion.

And Caitlin Talmadge, a nuclear policy expert at Georgetown University, said there is a ‘real possibility’ the Russian leader could drop a bomb if the diplomatic and political situation continues to crumble.

Meanwhile Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko issued a chilling threat the West’s sanctions are pushing the Kremlin into a Third World War.

The escalating fears of a nuclear battle come despite Kyiv and Moscow agreeing to hold peace talks at the border with Belarus later on Monday.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was sceptical about the negotiations, with his government reporting hundreds of civilian deaths and Russian troops besieging key cities.

Mr Muratov, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for ‘safeguarding freedom of expression’, told the BBC:  ‘Putin’s words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war.

‘This is a threat that if Russia isn’t treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed.’ He added: ‘Russia’s political elites are never with the people. They always take the side of the ruler.’

Meanwhile Ms Talmadge, an associate professor of security studies, said Putin’s move was ‘escalatory as it is potentially putting at play forces that, if there’s a miscalculation, could make things much, much more dangerous’.

She told the FT: ‘There’s a real possibility Putin could turn to nuclear weapons if he continues to experience military setbacks and sees the diplomatic and political situation crumbling.’

Chairman of the UK’s Foreign Affairs Committee Tom Tugendhat said Russia sees battlefield nuclear weapons as simply ‘a bigger bang’ and could give a military order to use them.

The Tory MP told the Today programme: ‘The Russian military doctrine doesn’t work in the same way as the Nato military doctrine.

‘They do assume that they may use battlefield nuclear weapons and they see them as just a, if you’ll excuse the expression, a bigger bang. They don’t treat fallout in the same way we do.’

He added although the situation was ‘concerning,’ it was not unprecedented for Russia to threaten nuclear action. He said: ‘That said, Russia has frequently threatened nuclear deployments in the past.

‘This is not unusual but at the same time it is concerning and it is not impossible a Russian military order to use battlefield nuclear weapons could be given.’

Putin escalated tensions by ordering Russian nuclear forces put on high alert after new crippling Western sanctions forced his Central Bank to sharply raise its key rate to save the rouble from collapse.

The explosions and gunfire around the Ukrainian capital besieged by the Russian forces appeared to subside overnight.

The Russian military offered to allow residents to leave Kyiv via a safe corridor while it has beefed up for an onslaught on the capital.

Ukraine has agreed to talks with Moscow and its delegation was heading to the border with Belarus in the north for the meeting.

Citing ‘aggressive statements’ by NATO and tough financial sanctions, Putin yesterday increased the readiness of his nuclear weapons, raising fears the invasion of Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.

Putin’s directive came as Russian forces encountered strong opposition from Ukraine defenders across the country but notably in Kyiv.

Moscow has so far failed to win full control of airspace, despite advances across the country. US officials say they believe the invasion has been more difficult than the Kremlin envisioned though it could change.

The conflict – seemingly more quiet overnight Sunday than in past nights – could evolve significantly if Russia gets military help from neighbouring Belarus, which is expected to send troops into Ukraine as soon as Monday.

The official, who asked to remain anonymous, said whether Belarus enters the war depends on Ukraine-Russia talks set to happen in coming days.

Amid the mounting pressure, Western nations said they would tighten sanctions and buy and deliver weapons for Ukraine, including Stinger missiles for shooting down helicopters and other aircraft.

European countries will also supply fighter jets to Ukraine, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Sunday evening.

Lukashenko said: ‘Now there is a lot of talk against the banking sector, gas, oil, Swift. It’s worse than war. This is pushing Russia into a Third World War. We need to be restrained here so as not to get into trouble. Because nuclear war is the end of everything.’

President Zelenskyy’s office has confirmed a meeting with a Russian delegation at an unspecified location on the Belarusian border.

It was not immediately clear when the meeting would take place, nor what the Kremlin was ultimately seeking, either in those potential talks on the border or, more broadly, from its war in Ukraine.

Western officials believe Putin wants to overthrow Ukraine’s government and replace it with a regime of his own, reviving Moscow’s Cold War-era influence.

The developments came as scattered fighting has continued around Kyiv. Battles also broke out in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, and strategic ports in the country’s south came under assault from Russian forces.

By late Sunday, Russian forces had taken Berdyansk, a Ukrainian city of 100,000 on the Azov Sea coast, according to Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to Zelenskyy’s office.

Russian troops also made advances toward Kherson, another city in the south of Ukraine, while Mariupol, a port city on the Sea of Azov that is considered a prime Russian target, is ‘hanging on,’ Arestovich said.

Russian Defence Minister Major General Igor Konashenkov also said troops took control of the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the south, but said the plant was safe and the radiation levels remained normal.

With Russian troops closing in around Kyiv, a city of three million, the mayor expressed doubt that civilians could be evacuated.

Authorities have been handing out weapons to anyone willing to defend the city. Ukraine is also releasing prisoners with military experience who want to fight, and training people to make firebombs.

But Konashenkov said the military would let Kyiv residents use a highway that leads out of the city to the southwest – an offer that appeared to signal a new onslaught is coming.

A nearly 40-hour curfew in Kyiv ended on Monday morning. The curfew will resume each night, from 10 pm until 7am.

In Mariupol, where Ukrainians were trying to fend off attack, a medical team at a city hospital desperately tried to revive a 6-year-old girl in unicorn pajamas who was mortally wounded in Russian shelling.

A doctor in blue medical scrubs, pumping oxygen into the girl, said: ‘Show this to Putin. The eyes of this child, and crying doctors.’

Their resuscitation efforts failed, and the girl lay dead on a gurney, her jacket spattered with blood. Nearly 560 miles away, Faina Bystritska was under threat in the city of Chernihiv.

‘I wish I had never lived to see this,’ said Bystritska, an 87-year-old Jewish survivor of World War II. She said sirens blare almost constantly in the city, about 90 miles from Kyiv.

Chernihiv residents have been told not to switch on any lights ‘so we don’t draw their attention,’ said Bystritska, who has been living in a hallway, away from any windows, so she could better protect herself.

‘The window glass constantly shakes, and there is this constant thundering noise,’ she said.

Meanwhile Western allies announced a freeze on Russia’s hard currency reserves – an unprecedented move that could have devastating consequences for the country’s financial system.

The rouble dived sharply on the news, and Russia’s Central Bank has raised its key rate from 9.5 per cent to 20 per cent in a desperate attempt to shore up the plummeting national currency and and prevent a run on banks.

The US, European Union and Britain also agreed to block selected Russian banks from the SWIFT system, which facilitates moving money around thousands of banks and other financial institutions worldwide.

The EU on Sunday also closed its airspace to Russian airlines and buy weapons for Ukraine. The 27-nation bloc will also ban some pro-Kremlin media outlets, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The US stepped up the flow of weapons to Ukraine, announcing it will send Stinger missiles as part of a package approved by the White House on Friday. Germany likewise plans to send 500 Stingers and other military supplies.

Also, the 193-member U.N. General Assembly scheduled an emergency session Monday on Russia’s invasion.

Putin, in ordering the nuclear alert, cited not only statements by NATO members but the hard-hitting financial sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, including Putin himself.

He said on TV: ‘Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country.’

US defence officials would not disclose their current nuclear alert level except to say the military is prepared at all times to defend its homeland and allies.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told ABC Putin is resorting to the pattern he used in the weeks before the invasion, ‘which is to manufacture threats that don’t exist in order to justify further aggression’.

The practical meaning of Putin’s order was not immediately clear. Russia and the US typically have land- and submarine-based nuclear forces that are on alert and prepared for combat at all times, but aircraft are not.

While Russian troops are being slowed by Ukrainians, fuel shortages and other logistical problems, a senior US defence official said it will probably change. He said: ‘We are in day four. The Russians will learn and adapt.’

The number of casualties from Europe’s largest land conflict since the Second World War remained unclear amid the confusion.

Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said Sunday that 352 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, including 14 children. It said an additional 1,684 people, including 116 children, have been wounded.

Russia’s Defence gave no figures on Russia’s dead and wounded but said Sunday his country’s losses were ‘many times’ lower than Ukraine’s.

Russia, which massed almost 200,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, claims its assault is aimed only at military targets, but bridges, schools and residential neighbourhoods have also been hit.

HOW IS PUTIN’S WAR NOT GOING TO PLAN?

MONEY

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Putin’s war with Ukraine is costing the Russian economy around £15billion-per-day alone – meaning the Kremlin will have spent around £45billion by the end of today in fighting Ukraine.

Writing on Twitter, Terras claimed that Russia would be forced to enter negotiations with Ukraine if Kyiv can hold off the Kremlin’s advance for 10 days, by which point Russia will have spent around £150billion.

Though it is widely believed that the Russian dictator will have factored Western sanctions into his calculations, the combined effect of punitive measures on Russia’s banking system will further squeeze its economy.

The United States, Britain, Japan, Canada, Australia and the European Union unveiled more sanctions on Moscow on top of penalties earlier this week, including a move by Germany to halt a gas pipeline from Russia.

President Joe Biden delivered further measures to target Russian banks, oligarchs and high-tech sectors, while the EU unveiled its own new package including financial, energy and technological sanctions.

WEAPONS AND RESOURCES

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Terras also claimed that Russia has rockets for ‘three to four days at most’ which they use ‘sparingly’.

He added: ‘They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

‘The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

‘If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources’.

OVERCONFIDENCE

Terras also claimed that at a meeting of the oligarchs in his lair in the Urals, Putin was ‘furious’ and ranted about how he thought the war would be ‘easily’ won in ‘one to four days’.

He continued: ‘Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees.

‘They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered’.