Can the world stop Israel’s onslaught in Gaza?

Sam Hawley: Hi, I’m Sam Hawley, coming to you from Gadigal land. This is ABC News Daily.

At the start of the Israel-Gaza war, the Israeli Prime Minister had firm backing from many nations, including Australia. But with the Gaza Health Authority now putting the death toll at more than 18,000, US President Joe Biden has warned Israel is losing that support and Australia has now backed a United Nations vote calling for a cease fire. Today, Ghaith Al Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on how the world’s view is shifting and what that means for the war. Ghaith, we’re going to look at where the Israel-Gaza war is up to in a moment as Israeli troops move further into the south. But let’s look first at the world’s reaction because it’s shifting, isn’t it? The UN has passed a resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

Dennis Francis, President, United Nations General Assembly: The Assembly will now take a decision on draft resolution, entitled Protection of Civilians and Upholding legal and humanitarian Obligations for resolution. A stroke is ten stroke L 27 has been adopted.

Sam Hawley: Just tell me a bit about that.

Ghaith al-Omari: Yeah. I mean, uh, this resolution is one that is not binding, yet it is one that expresses where the centre of gravity for most of the countries right now. And I think many in the world right now are trying to balance, on the one hand, between Israel’s legitimate right to try to kind of destroy Hamas after the, you know, events of October 7th. On the other hand, I think there is a growing impatience with both the amount of civilian casualties, but also the lack of access to basic humanitarian goods. So we’re starting to see this coming both in the multilateral level, in the UN and elsewhere, but also from individual countries.

Dennis Francis, President, United Nations General Assembly: What we are seeing is an onslaught on civilians and profound disrespect for both international law and international humanitarian law. Even war has rules.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N: We agree that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire and requires urgent and sustained attention. That civilians desperately need food and water and shelter and medical care. That a devastating number of innocent people have been killed…

Munir Akram, Pakistan’s U.N. Ambassador: When you humiliate and trap them in an open-air prison where you kill them as if they were beasts, they become very angry and they do to others what was done to them.

Sam Hawley: And it was only Israel and the United States and a handful of other nations that voted against that resolution.

Gilad Erdan, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations: There are no war crimes more heinous than the atrocities Hamas committed. And those that support this resolution are giving the terrorists a free pass.

Sam Hawley: But the way the US president, Joe Biden, is talking has changed dramatically this week, hasn’t it?

Ghaith al-Omari: Absolutely. And I think this reflects two things. I mean, on the one hand, what I just said before, the fact that the human toll is just becoming very unbearable, but also we’re starting to see from the Israeli prime minister statements that are contradictory. You know, President Biden says we want the Palestinian Authority to come in the day after. And I sense and I feel that President Biden is basically saying, you know, if you want to play hardball, so can I.

Sam Hawley: And that’s significant, isn’t it? Because up until now, the United States has largely backed Israel and the war in Gaza. But President Biden, at a closed door fundraiser expressed his concern not only by the indiscriminate bombing, but by what Netanyahu plans to do after the war. He’s concerned that he’s leading one of the most conservative governments in Israel’s history that doesn’t want a two state solution, or an Israel for Jewish people and a Palestine for Palestinian people.

Ghaith al-Omari: I mean, I think calling it conservative is a diplomatic way of describing it. I think this is a government that has at least, uh, 2 or 3 members who are certified extremists. I mean, their rhetoric is very hardline. Their rhetoric is even racist in some ways. And this is creating, uh, tensions not only with President Biden, but with the whole Democratic Party. So there is a sense that doing business with this government is creating a degree of political liability. Now, to be clear, it doesn’t mean that the US will not support Israel in this war. I think the position is very clear, but I think we will start to see more and more public pressure being applied on this government.

Sam Hawley: And so a rift is opening. It’s clear between Joe Biden and the Israeli prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu and other world leaders are clearly concerned as well. The Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has joined New Zealand and Canada to push for a sustainable ceasefire. So the concern is spreading here.

Ghaith al-Omari: Absolutely. And I think this is a point that needs to be kept in mind that conducting an operation is not only a military affair, but it also has to have the political and diplomatic backing and space to be able to do that. And if Israel is losing the support of some of these close allies of Israel, then its ability to achieve its goals will be limited. Even if it has a military capability, it might lack the political and diplomatic space to do that.

Sam Hawley: The Gaza authorities say 70% of the dead are women and children. And of course, now the Israeli soldiers have moved into the south of the country, where many civilians have been sheltering. UN officials say there’s nowhere safe left for civilians now.

Volker Turk, UN Commissioner for Human Rights: Palestinians in Gaza are living in utter deepening horror. My humanitarian colleagues have described the situation as apocalyptic.

Ghaith al-Omari: It’s worth taking a step back just to remind ourselves that many people who are in the south of Gaza right now were actually inhabitants of the North, who was basically who were told by Israel to go south while Israel was doing its operations in the north. Now they’re basically stuck. The north is completely destroyed. There’s… It’s unliveable at the moment. For many of those Gazans, for most of those Gazans in the South right now, they really have nowhere to go. Egypt doesn’t want to open its borders, and it has good reasons for that. The geographic space is very limited, and these people find themselves right now basically stuck between Hamas and Israel, not only being under fire, but also lacking the very basic humanitarian needs.

Sam Hawley: Ghaith, now, I want to consider with you what Israel has achieved in Gaza other than destruction and a huge number of civilian deaths. Israel’s aim, according to the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was to bring the hostages home and destroy Hamas.

Benjamin Netanyahu: This battle will continue until victory. It is not going to stop. We will eliminate Hamas. We have no other alternative.

Sam Hawley: So let’s look at how much progress Israel is making in that mission. Where is that up to?

Ghaith al-Omari: I mean, in terms of hostages, a good number more than 100 were actually released according to a ceasefire that was brokered by Qatar, Israel and Hamas. So at least most of the women and children have been released. But there are still hostages. But that’s not surprising for Hamas keeping the hostages. They see them as a negotiation card. The more interesting part, I think, is the military side. What it’s very clear that Israel has achieved a significant damage to Hamas. I mean, of course, it’s very hard to know exact numbers in the middle of fighting. But the reports I’ve seen around 5000, uh, Hamas fighters, uh, from a force of around 30,000, but that includes many of the leadership in the northern Brigades of Hamas. So Hamas is feeling the pressure, but Hamas is still capable of fighting back. We see mounting Israeli casualties. We see continued rocket fire into Israel. The nature of such an operation is by its very nature, it’s going to be prolonged.

Sam Hawley: And of course, we must remember this war was sparked after around 1200 people, mainly civilians, were massacred in Israel on October the 7th in the most horrendous scenes to destroy Hamas. Ghaith does Israel need to destroy all of its leadership? I know you’ve mentioned it has killed some of the leaders, but does it need to get rid of the top brass, if I can put it that way?

Ghaith al-Omari: I mean, up to a point. I mean, obviously the most important thing is to dismantle its command and control capabilities, etcetera. But there are some Hamas top leaders who have very high symbolic value, particularly the leader of the movement in Gaza, a guy by the name of Yahia Sinwar and the military commander of Hamas’s militias, the al-Qassam brigades. These two individuals, I think, have very high symbolic value, and I think failure to get them would be seen as a failure. Yet it’s worth keeping in mind that Hamas is not only an organisation that exists in Gaza. For example, its top political leaders live right now in Qatar. They have very strong presence in Turkey. One of their top military leaders lives in Lebanon. So destroying all of the top leadership of Hamas is simply not possible. But I think the objective is to at least render it incapable of conducting military operations and terror attacks from Gaza and getting 1 or 2 of the top, you know, symbolic leaders to show the public that Israel has done what it wanted to do.

Sam Hawley: And even if it does succeed in doing that, if these leaders of Hamas still operate in places like Qatar and Lebanon, as you mentioned, is it actually possible to destroy what Hamas stands for, to actually destroy Hamas, do you think?

Ghaith al-Omari: I think it is possible to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities. This has been done in the past in the West Bank, for example, in the early 2000. So the military objective is possible. On the other hand, Hamas is an idea. It is impossible to destroy the ideology. But I think the thinking here is that, you know, repulsive as Hamas’s ideology might be, the main threat is the ability to conduct terror, not the ideology. So if you neutralise that, then you can deal with the ideology. And I think the analogy that people often draw is you look at ISIS, the ISIS ideology continues to exist. Obviously there are still adherents to it. Yet today, ISIS is not a fraction of the threat that it was a few years ago. I think this is the objective. Yes, you can destroy Hamas’s military capabilities, but unless we create a better alternative, both in terms of good governance, but also in terms of opening a horizon for peace, unfortunately, I believe Hamas will reconstitute and if its not Hamas itself then will have Hamas 2.0.

Sam Hawley: That takes us to the question of who will ultimately govern Gaza when this war is over. And that rift again between the United States view of what should happen and Israel’s view of what should happen. Just tell me about the options there.

Ghaith al-Omari: The ideal option, and I think the natural option is for ultimately the Palestinians to govern themselves. And they recognise the address the recognised government for the Palestinians is the Palestinian Authority. So when we hear President Biden and other officials talk about a revitalised Palestinian Authority, I think this is what they mean. They understand that you need the Palestinians to govern themselves. Of course, we know that the Palestinian Authority in its current form is incapable of doing that. It’s too weak, it’s too discredited, and it’s too corrupt to do that. So it needs to be built up. Unfortunately, what we’re seeing right now with the Israeli prime minister, he is precluding all possible options. So when the US says the Palestinian Authority has to come, Netanyahu says, no way. When the others talk about, for example, a UN mandate, he says, no way. So if if he continues and if the Israeli government continues in this direction, they might find themselves with no option but to govern Gaza directly and for a prolonged period. And that, I believe, is not good for Israel, certainly not good, certainly not good for the Palestinians, and will create, I think, some very negative regional ripple effects.

Sam Hawley: Ghaith, how will we know when the war is over?

Ghaith al-Omari: I believe that is the most difficult question, because Israel has defined such broad objectives that it’s very hard to quantify when we get there, but by and large we would be looking at two different factors. Hamas. Is Hamas still capable of firing rockets into Israel? If it is, then obviously the war is not over. And is Hamas still having some control over the population on the ground? If it does, then the mission is not over. So I think these are the two main indicators, but even with those, it will still be very difficult to kind of have a definitive end. And I suspect that even when the major fighting is over, they will continue having a prolonged, maybe a year or two of lower intensity kind of counterterrorism operations. So unfortunately, I believe we have still a way to go.

Sam Hawley: Ghaith al-Omari is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

This episode was produced by Bridget Fitzgerald, Nell Whitehead, Anna John and Sam Dunn, who also did the mix. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I’m Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again tomorrow. Thanks for listening.