Fox News Poll: Post-debate, Trump is back on top in horserace
Former President Trump narrowly regains the top spot in the race for the White House, besting President Biden by just one point. That’s according to a Fox News national survey that was taken after the first presidential debate but before Saturday’s assassination attempt on the former president.
Amid calls for Biden to withdraw as the Democratic nominee, the survey finds a majority thinks his age is putting U.S. national security at risk. But it also finds that self-identified Democratic voters, by a 10-point margin, want the president to stay in the contest.
Sixty-one percent of voters think the U.S. is less respected around the world compared to four years ago, up from 54% who said the same in 2019 under the Trump administration.
After an extremely poor performance at the first presidential debate, 63% believe Biden’s age is jeopardizing national security, 71% think the White House has been dishonest about Biden’s mental state, and another 63% doubt he is that involved in making important decisions these days.
All that seems to have already been factored into voters’ preferences, as the survey shows a small shift in the Biden-Trump matchup since June. Biden was ahead by 2 points last month (50-48%), and now Trump is ahead by 1 point (48-49%) – which is also exactly where things stood in May.
The shift comes mostly from independents, even though they are an extremely small subgroup. Most Republicans back Trump (93%), most Democrats back Biden (92%) and independents favor Trump by just 2 points (well within the margin of error). In June, Trump and Biden received equal support from their partisans (95% each) and independents went for Biden by 9 points.
Among voters saying Biden is placing the U.S. at risk, roughly one-quarter still back him over Trump in a head-to-head race (24-72%).
Trump retains 95% of his 2020 supporters compared to 91% for Biden, and Trump is favored by 7 points among new voters (those who haven’t voted in the four most recent general elections). He is the choice among men (+9 points), rural voters (+17), Whites without a college degree (+21), and White evangelical Christians (+45). Those margins are all larger than they were in July 2020. At that time, he led Biden by 5 points among men, 9 points among both rural voters and Whites with no degree, and 43 points among White evangelicals.
Biden is preferred among women (by 6 points), Hispanic voters (+8), suburban women (+13), and Black voters (+42). Those numbers, however, are well below where he was four years ago. In July 2020, Biden led by 19 points among women, 30 points among Hispanics, 23 points among suburban women, and 64 points among Black voters.
Biden is also helped by a 4-point advantage among voters who “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance.
“The survey underscores a big problem for Biden,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “It’s not that he has lost a lot of ground. It’s that he was already underperforming with key groups and the debate makes it extremely unlikely he’ll be able to refocus the race away from his age anytime soon.”
Voters who view both candidates negatively (aka double haters) prefer Biden by 22 points. That makes sense given more women than men and more Democrats than Republicans fall into the double-hater category.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump bests Biden by 3 points (44-41%), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 10%, Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 1%. Biden was up by 1 point in the expanded ballot in June. Kennedy takes about the same level of support from those backing Biden (7%) and Trump (9%) in the 2-way horse race.
Would Harris do better than Biden against Trump in November?
Vice President Harris’ personal ratings are up (overall and among Democrats) and her standing against Trump has also improved.
In a hypothetical matchup in March, Trump topped Harris by 6 points. Now it is a one-point race, Harris 48% vs. Trump 49% – identical to the Biden-Trump contest.
The same holds true for other Democrats talked about as potential Biden replacements. The race is a dead heat against Trump for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (48% each), and Trump bests Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by just one point.
“Despite only losing a few points after the debate, Biden’s pathway to victory in November has become much harder,” says Anderson. “The bottom didn’t fall out because Trump was already a totally unacceptable alternative to Biden’s supporters before the debate, but a few points is the whole ballgame in a close election.”
Nine out of 10 Democrats back their party’s candidate in all four 2-way matchups tested.
With partisans dug in, independents make most of the difference. Trump and Harris are tied among independents, otherwise they narrowly favor the Democratic candidate (Biden by 2 points, Newsom by 4, and Whitmer by 5). In earlier surveys, independents backed Trump over Harris by 15 points (March 2024) and preferred him over Newsom by 10 points and Whitmer by 13 points (in Nov. 2023).
Forty-four percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 54% view her unfavorably. While that’s negative by 10 points, it is an improvement since last month (-16). Harris’ numbers are similar to Trump’s (negative by 12 points) and better than Biden’s (underwater by 20 points).
Kennedy’s favorable is negative by 9 points (42-51%) and Newsom is also underwater by 9 (35-44%), while Whitmer’s favorable rating is positive by 3 (35%-32%). She is unknown to 33% of voters and 21% are unfamiliar with Newsom.
The president’s favorable rating is down 6 points among Democrats since June and more now have a positive view of Harris (83%) than of Biden (78%). It was the reverse last month, when 84% of Democrats viewed Biden favorably and 77% Harris. By comparison, Trump is a bit more popular among Republicans (85% favorable).
None of the candidates tested – not the president, not the vice president, not the former president, and not the potential Biden replacements – garner positive ratings from at least 50 percent of the electorate. Harris and Trump come closest at 44% favorable each.
How much did the debate hurt Biden’s job ratings?
Biden’s job approval is down 3 points: 42% approve and 58% disapprove. Last month it was 45-55%. His lowest approval was 40% in Nov. 2023 and July 2022.
Biden’s marks are a bit worse than Trump’s at this point four years ago, when 45% approved and 54% disapproved of the job he was doing (July 2020).
Approval of Biden is at a low among Black voters (55%) and at or near lows among urban voters (49%), women (42%), self-described liberals (73%), and 2020 Biden voters (80%). Some 81% of Democrats approve of his performance, down from 84% last month and 86% in May. At the beginning of his term, more than 9 in 10 Democrats approved.
The president receives lower ratings on individual issues: Israel-Hamas war (30% approve-67% disapprove), inflation (33-66%), immigration (33-65%), and the economy (38-61%).
Neither Biden nor Trump has ever had more than 50% say they were mentally fit to serve
While more voters continue to think Biden is honest and trustworthy than say the same of Trump, more also say Trump is mentally fit than Biden.
A new low of 32% think Biden has the mental soundness to serve effectively as president, down 9 points since May. It is a larger 17-point drop among Democrats, from 78% two months ago to 61% now. It is also telling he’s never had more than half saying he was mentally up to the job — even before winning the presidency. The highest was 49% in both Sept. 2020 and Sept. 2021.
Four years ago this month, 47% said Biden had the mental soundness to serve and he led Trump by 8 points, 49-41%.
Currently, 49% think Trump has what it takes mentally to serve effectively as president. That’s mostly unchanged since May (50%), and up from a low of 43% a year ago. He has also failed to ever have more than 50% saying he is mentally fit to serve.
Among those saying Biden isn’t mentally fit, 25% back him over Trump in the horserace, while only 10% of those saying Trump isn’t mentally fit back him over Biden.
By a 9-point margin, more voters think Biden is honest and trustworthy than Trump. Some 46% say Biden is honest, up from a low of 40% a year ago. For Trump, 37% say he is honest, up from 31% last summer. In the days before the 2020 election, 52% said Biden was honest while 37% said the same about Trump.
On the issues, more voters trust Trump on crime (+12), immigration (+11), and the economy (+10). He is also preferred on taxes (+7) and the Israel-Hamas war (+6). Biden is favored on handling abortion (+10 points) and health care (+7), and while his strongest issue, climate change (+12), is lowest on voters’ priority list, it ranks as a top concern among Democrats.
Neither candidate has a clear upper hand on stability and normalcy (Biden +2), Supreme Court nominations (Biden +3), or the future of American democracy (Biden +4), but they all lean toward the president. Notably, Biden’s edge on stability and normalcy held steady post-debate.
FOX NEWS POLL: 69% THINK US IS THE BEST COUNTRY, UP 5 POINTS SINCE LAST YEAR
Grading the debate
The survey finds the conventional wisdom that the debate was a disaster for the president is largely correct. Using a letter grade scale, on average voters give Biden a D for his performance, with 46% giving him an F. Democrats give him a C- while independents give him a D.
Biden’s saving grace is that voters didn’t see Trump as particularly compelling. On average they give him a C, with 29% giving him an F. Republicans give him a B and independents a C-.
Democrats grade Trump a D, while Republicans give Biden an F.
Poll-pourri
Among Democrats, one-third (34%) think someone other than Biden is making decisions and nearly half (47%) feel the White House hid the president’s condition. More than 3 in 10 Democrats (34%) and 6 in 10 independents (62%) feel Biden is putting the U.S. at risk.
Even so, by a 10-point margin, Democrats say Biden should stay in the race (54% stay, 44% drop out). By comparison, Republicans want to keep Trump as their nominee by a 53-point margin (76% keep, 23% someone else).
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Some 62% of voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, and by a 5-point margin that group goes for Trump (52%) over Biden (47%). That makes sense given more Trump supporters (66%) feel extremely motivated than Biden supporters (61%).
On another enthusiasm measure, 64% say it is extremely important to them that their candidate wins, and by a 3-point margin they favor Biden, 51-48%. That’s because a larger number of those backing Biden (68%) than Trump (63%) feel it is extremely important their guy wins.
Conducted July 7-10, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,210 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (132) and cellphones (787) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (291). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with results among subgroup is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
