Zelenskyy says domestic weapons production, U.S. election critical for Ukraine war success

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counteroffensive that failed to produce desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces.

With winter set to cloak a wartime Ukraine once again, military leaders must contend with new but familiar challenges as the conflict grinds toward the end of its second full year: there are freezing temperatures and barren fields that leave soldiers exposed. And there’s the renewed threat of widespread Russian aerial assaults in cities that target energy infrastructure and civilians.

On Nov. 25, Moscow launched its most extensive drone attack of the war that began in February 2022, with most of the 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones targeting Kyiv, in a troubling precedent for the months ahead.

Despite setbacks, Zelenskky remained optimistic in an exclusive interview Thursday with The Associated Press in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

Here are some highlights from the interview:

Modest gains from this year’s counteroffensive

The highly anticipated counteroffensive, powered by tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid, including heavy weaponry, did not forge the expected breakthroughs. Now, some Ukrainian officials worry whether further assistance will be as generous.

“We wanted faster results. From that perspective, unfortunately, we did not achieve the desired results. And this is a fact,” he said.

But he praised the efforts of Ukrainian troops.

“Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting with the second [best] army in the world, I am satisfied,” he said, referring to the Russian military. But he added: “We are losing people, I’m not satisfied.”

The static battle lines have not brought pressure from Ukraine’s allies to negotiate a peace deal with Russia.

“I don’t feel it yet,” he said, although he added: “Some voices are always heard.”

Ukraine wants to “push the formula for peace and involve as many countries of the world as possible, so that they politically isolate Russia,” he noted.

Reliance on foreign-made weapons

Ammunition stockpiles are running low, and Ukraine has not received all the weapons it needs from allies to repel Russia, Zelenskyy said.

When he last met with U.S. President Joe Biden, members of Congress and other top officials, he made one urgent appeal: Give Ukraine cheap loans and licenses to manufacture U.S. weaponry.

“Give us these opportunities, and we will build,” he said he told them. “Whatever effort and time it will take, we will do it, and we will do it very quickly.”

Ukraine has sought out both the U.S. and European countries for opportunities to boost domestic arms capacity.

The U.S. detailed its contributions in terms of weapons and military training in a statement from Nov. 20, indicating that it had contributed approximately $44.2 billion in military assistance since the February 2022 invasion by Russia. Canada has pledged over $1.5 billion in military assistance.

The 2024 U.S. election

The U.S. on Nov. 5, 2024, will hold its presidential election, with 33 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats in contention as well.

A recent AP poll indicated nearly half of Americans think too much is being spent on Ukraine. An increasing number of Republicans are not in favour of sending more aid, and it is not clear if or when a request from the White House for additional aid will be approved by Congress.

When asked about this, Zelenskyy replied bluntly, “The choice of Americans is the choice of Americans.”

In terms of the White House, Biden has not wavered in backing Ukraine, but presumptive Republican front-runner Donald Trump once threatened to pull significant Ukraine aid while president for what Democrats termed personal gain, in part the subject of his first impeachment.

Zelenskyy argued that by helping Ukraine, Americans are also helping themselves.

“In the case of Ukraine, if resilience fails today due to lack of aid and shortages of weapons and funding, it will mean that Russia will most likely invade NATO countries,” he said. “And then the American children will fight.”

The Israel-Hamas war

Zelenskyy remains concerned that upheaval in the Middle East threatens to take global attention and resources away from Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

“We already can see the consequences of the international community shifting [attention] because of the tragedy in the Middle East,” he said. “Only the blind don’t recognize this.”

In an apparent attempt to assuage those fears, U.S. and European officials have continued to visit Kyiv since the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

Ukrainians understand “that we also need to fight for attention for the full-scale war,” he said. “We must not allow people to forget about the war here.”

Positive takeaways from recent months

Ukraine managed to make incremental territorial gains against a better-armed and fortified enemy, Zelenskyy said.

In addition, the might of Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet has been diminished, following Ukrainian attacks that penetrated air defences and struck its headquarters in occupied Crimea, Zelenskyy added.

And a temporary grain corridor established by Kyiv following Russia’s withdrawal from a wartime agreement to ensure safe exports is still working.

Ukraine’s election likely on hold

The war has also made it impossible to hold a presidential election scheduled for March under the constitution, he said.

With a budget anticipating spending 22 per cent of the country’s GDP for defence and national security, Ukraine’s economy is being restructured around a war with no end in sight, much like the day-to-day lives of its citizens.

Although Zelenskyy said he was ready to hold an election, most Ukrainians are not, he said, believing such a vote to be “dangerous and meaningless” as war rages.

In Russia, Putin is likely to run for another six-year term next year. Zelenskyy said that vote would not be democratic and that the world should label the balloting illegitimate.