What’s actually happening in denim?

May 10, 2024 Mary

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Jeans are all over the fashion headlines: “Gen Z has canceled skinny jeans — here’s what’s replacing them” (The New York Post, May 2023), “Who’s afraid of the skinny jean revival?” (Vogue, March 2024), “So long, skinny jeans. See you in the next cycle” (NPR, April 2024). One could be forgiven for thinking wondering, “What denim is actually in style?” and “Are skinny jeans dead or not?” The answers, which I found through a thorough investigation, are complicated.

Kristen Classi-Zummo, director of analysis for the apparel industry at market research firm Circana, said the fashion-forward customers who buy into new trends make up a small percentage of the broader market. Currently, that includes the barrel jean — more on that to come. That woman has likely donated her skinny jeans, but many others have not. In fact, beyond straight-leg jeans, which currently top denim sales, skinny jeans are still a leading silhouette.

Since Covid, denim has had an interesting trajectory. Category sales were down 6% in 2023, but somewhat flat compared to 2019. Meanwhile, 2021 marked a big year for the category because it saw an influx in newness, Classi-Zummo. Gen Z announced to millennials that skinny jeans were no longer cool. Instead, wide-leg styles were in, baggy was in and a lower rise was making a comeback (to much debate). As a result, denim sales climbed 37%. Of course, 2020 had seen a huge slump, but 2021 sales were even higher than in 2019, Classi-Zummo said.

As a rule, denim sees growth when there are new trends to buy into, Classi-Zummo said. As such, “it’s important for the industry to continue to be innovative and lean into new trends and new styles and silhouettes,” she said.

For Citizens of Humanity, the Horseshoe Jean ($268-$298, depending on wash) with its exaggerated barrel shape has proven to be a hit. The style first launched in 2021, and it has grown in popularity to be among its top-five-selling styles, according to the brand. Its sales tripled from 2022-2023.

The denim trend cycle is longer than most people realize, said Marianne McDonald, Citizens of Humanity’s creative director. “Everybody always thinks [a style] is going to go away [soon],” she said. “But, having been through the cycle a few times, I can tell you that the span is about 10 years.”

Typically when a new trend comes on the scene, people decide it’s “for skinny girls” or “for young girls,” she said. “But then it’s full mass adoption.”

As for barrel jeans, McDonald said the trend is likely at its peak. Citizens of Humanity’s Horseshoe style was polarizing when it was first introduced three years ago. “Opinions were quite divisive and people had strong reactions all over social media,” she said. As the silhouette has become more widely embraced, however, more companies, including those that cater to more mainstream audiences, have introduced versions. For example, Everlane released a barrel jean in January.

Free People’s We The Free Good Luck Mid-Rise Barrel Jeans have an approachable price point of $98 and come in 14 washes and three lengths. The top-selling wash sold out within two weeks of launch back in January 2023, and “barrel Jeans” remains a top search term on the brand’s site. On average, the brand sells 150 units a day throughout the year, but on Black Friday 2023, it sold 150 units an hour, a brand rep told Glossy.

As barrel jeans have become popular, the silhouette has been worn by the likes of Gigi Hadid, Blake Lively and Dove Cameron, who have helped push the look further into the mainstream. Alaia even showed a barrel silhouette on its fall 2023 runway.

Of course, as evident when people-watching in New York or Los Angeles, or even in your own closet, many denim styles fall somewhere in between abandoned skinnies and exaggerated barrel jeans.

As Erin Meehan, creative director at Frame, said, “Women now have many silhouettes in our wardrobe, and I don’t think that’s going to change — especially in the denim world. It’s not: ‘Tomorrow we’re waking up, and we’re all wearing low-rise skinny jeans and that’s it.’”

Echoing Classi-Zummo and McDonald, Tim Kaeding, founder of Mother Denim, noted that people take time to adopt new denim silhouettes — and that’s especially because doing so requires an investment. As denim trends change, so too do the rest of our wardrobes, including the tops we wear and our shoes. But, he noticed, once people embraced straight jeans, slightly looser and then wide-leg jeans weren’t far off. “I think, from there, a barrel fit makes for an easy transition,” Kaeding said.

Mother backs up Circana’s data. On the one hand, its No. 1 bestseller is a style called the Dazzler, which is a pretty slim-fitting jean. On the other, its take on a barrel jean, dubbed the “Half-Pipe,” is seeing growth. On Motherdenim.com, ‘barrel’ and ‘barrel jeans’ searches have seen a 304% increase in the last 30 days, compared to the prior 30 days. Searches for the Half-Pipe style, specifically, saw a 282% increase in the same timeframe.

Barrel jeans have continued to increase in popularity across all brands. According to data from Google Trends, the most weekly searches Google has seen for “barrel jeans” occurred during the week of February 18-24, 2024. Ever since that peak period, the search term “barrel jeans” remains three times more popular compared to December 2023.

“I don’t jump into these kind of histrionics, like, ‘This is dead!’ and ‘This is the only thing that you can wear!’ — it feels very antiquated,” Meehan said of the denim trend cycle. Still, she is currently designing for 2025 and foresees the pendulum swinging yet again: “I think we’re coming out of a very baggy, loose [time in denim trends],” she said.

So, where are we going? “We are going to see slimmer shapes than we have been seeing, but the barrel shape is still going to be a big trend,” said Meehan. “You’re going to see different iterations of it: trouser versions of it, cargo versions of it. But in general, things will start to feel a bit more tailored.”

Collab of the week

Purveyor of socks for cool girls, Comme Si just launched a loungewear collab with the heritage London-based department store Liberty inclusive of boxers, button-downs and lounge pants. “I’ve always been inspired by Liberty’s iconic floral prints. When I started entertaining the idea of introducing prints to our loungewear, it was a no-brainer to look to Liberty. We worked closely with their fabric archive team, selecting ones that reflected a traditional yet modern take on English florals for our first print collection. We then customized each pattern to create something special for Comme Si,” said Jenni Lee, Comme Si founder and creative director. The collection ranges from $90-285. Shop it here.

Pop-up of the week

Siegelman Stable, the “it” brand launched during the pandemic, is hosting a pop-up in partnership with Shopify from May 10-12. “Having our brand show up in the right places, on the right people and at the right time has been our path to growth,” said founder Max Siegelman. “A handful of remarkable names have worn our brand and helped bring awareness, and we’ve been strategic about who, what, when and why — and continue to do so. We rely on our storytelling and quality to bring in customers and awareness.” The pop-up will allow customers to shop exclusive items, including the brand’s first full racing tracksuit, based on Siegelman’s father’s own. It’s worth noting that $73 hats from Siegelman Stable’s collab with the New York Rangers in October 2023 were resold on eBay for between $400-$500. Check it out at Shopify NY, located at 131 Greene Street in New York.

Launch of the week

LED is nothing new. Hop on Instagram or TikTok and you’ll find an influencer wearing a face mask touting the benefits of the light-based technology. See: this edition of the Pop Newsletter. HigherDose, known for its sauna blanket, already sells an LED face mask and an LED neck mask, and on Friday, it introduced the Red Light Hat meant to treat thinning hair. Other LED options exist for hair thinning but most look like literal headgear and are priced near $1,000. In a survey testing HigherDose’s new technology, 83% of participants saw hair growth within 12 weeks. “We designed the Red Light Hat to supercharge scalp vitality, knowing so many men and women are experiencing shedding and thinning. It’s discreet, portable for travel and free of harmful chemicals, and it harnesses clinically tested red light and near-infrared technology. We made it easy to ritualize everyday hair health at a competitive price point,” said Lauren Berlingeri, co-founder and co-CEO of HigherDose, of the $449 beauty tool. Shop it here.