Presidential Election Forecaster with Near-Perfect Record Makes Prediction for 2024
A forecaster with a near-perfect record in predicting every presidential election since 1984 has announced who he believes will win in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington D.C., has declared that he predicts Democrat President Joe Biden will win the 2024 election.
“A lot would have to go wrong” for Biden to lose to President Donald Trump in November, Lichtman claims.
He suggested that the public is being misled by corporate media polling that shows Trump leading in swing states.
The media has long been accused of using this tactic to create a false sense of security that leads voters to believe they don’t need to vote for a candidate that will easily win.
Lichtman devised a system, which he terms “13 Keys.”
He also wrote a book in the 1980s explaining the idea.
Lichtman says the technique enables him “to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.”
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes it’s still in the Democrat president’s favor to retain office.
He notes that two of his 13 keys – lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency – are already in Biden’s favor.
“That’s two keys off the top,” he said.
“That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat.
“A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Lichtman is not impressed by polls showing that Trump is either competitive or beating Biden nationally and in key swing states.
“They’re mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the polls,” he said.
“First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.”
However, he notes that the Biden campaign does not have a guarantee of victory.
“It’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he’s convicted – and there’s a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things.”
Lichtman claims the COVID-19 pandemic was a historical event that made him predict Biden’s victory in 2020.
Nevertheless, he says Biden’s handling of the pandemic during his presidency has only hurt his chances of re-election.
“The pandemic is what did him in,” he told The Guardian.
“He congratulated me for predicting him but he didn’t understand the keys.
“The message of the keys is it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.”
However, there are some of the keys working in Trump’s favor, according to Lichtman.
One of the keys is a significant third-party challenger, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Two of the keys involve the economy and Biden has yet to see his approval rating tick up for it.
Social unrest is another key that tracks against Biden.
College campuses are now a hotbed for left-wing anti-Israel protesting.
Many of the young people protesting are referring to the president as “Genocide Joe.”
The charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger are also seen as keys and age appears to be much more of a factor against Biden than Trump.
It should be noted that while Lichtman claims to have a perfect record, he hasn’t got every election right.
He was incorrect in 2000, predicting Al Gore would win.
However, he claims that it was a stolen election and argues that Gore “won the popular vote.”
Nonetheless, he also takes credit for getting Trump’s 2016 victory correct despite Hillary Clinton supposedly winning the popular vote – a factor that has no grounds in the Constitution.
He admits that regardless of the result, no system can ever be completely foolproof.
“It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail,” he said.
“I’m human. It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong.
“Nothing is perfect in the human world.”
Lichtman’s “13 Keys”
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third-party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
No matter what the media claims, conservatives will have to battle for victory in November.
As we’ve seen in past elections, Trump will not only need the votes to win fairly but to also counter rampant voter fraud.
Democrats will do whatever it takes to win so conservatives need to prepare to vote in record numbers.
READ MORE – 20% of 2020 Election Mail-In Ballots Were Fraudulent, Investigation Finds
