North Shropshire by-election news – live: Lib Dems claim party set to ‘win comfortably’ as count continues

Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said she was confident her party had won the seat “comfortably”.

The Edinburgh West MP said: “I don’t want to put a figure on it just now but we are just delighted that we’ve listened to the voters in North Shropshire and those voters are putting their confidence in us.

“People who are fed up, people who are tired and who are angry at the way this Government has behaved know now that they have an alternative.

“Conservative MPs right across those ‘Blue Wall’ seats will be looking over their shoulders.

“The Conservatives had a majority… Owen Paterson had a majority of more than 20,000. We’ve turned that round tonight – turned it round comfortably. That’s astonishing.

“We think we’ve won and won comfortably.”

Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat’s treasury spokesperson, has said she is “confident” the Liberal Democrats have “won comfortably”.

For Boris Johnson, she says, “the party is over”.

A party spokesman added: “We’re not just going to win, we’re going to win comfortably. This is an amazing night for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for Boris Johnson.”

Sources suggest the Liberal Democrats are claiming victory. Pertinently, the sense is it might not even be close.

Turnout has been confirmed as 46.3 per cent.

That’s considerably up on the 33.5 per cent that turned up for the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election earlier this month.

However, it is significantly lower than the 2019 general election turnout in the constituency of 62.9%.

All good by-elections have the sense of an emotional roller-coaster about them – and that’s how this is shaping up tonight.

An hour after suggestions that a strong Labour vote may have denied the Lib Dems victories here, yellow-rosette activists are now sensing blood again.

Sources suggest they have done better than expected in the postal vote – most of which actually came in before the Downing Street Christmas party revelations.

Tories in North Shropshire are concerned that the Liberal Democrats will pip them to the post as a result of a “protest vote” in the scandal-hit constituency.

A Conservative member reportedly said that it appears as if constituents have voted Lib Dem en masse after the resignation of the previous MP – Owen Paterson – triggered the by-election.

Mr Paterson sparked a sleaze row for having been found to have broken lobbying rules.

LBC journalist Theo Underwood tweeted: “Tory view from the North Shropshire count is that from looking at the contents of the ballot boxes that have arrived first, it looks like the protest votes have coalesced around the Lib Dems. Conservative source: ‘We’re in trouble.’”

Just in case you need a reminder of who is in the running to represent North Shropshire:

Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst – Conservatives

Former army medical officer and honorary NHS consultant is seeking to hold the seat for the Tories. He now works as a barrister, and says that as an MP he would “focus on … building back better after the pandemic and supporting sustainable agriculture.”

Helen Morgan – Liberal Democrats

Her party has said that she is the only candidate that can beat the Conservatives, after she had previously fought for the seat in 2019, and she has pledged to improve local health services.

The “Oswestry-born and-bred” candidate said the by-election was a chance to rid North Shropshire of Tory sleaze, and has pledged to “bring back a sense of decency” into local politics.

Duncan Kerr – Green Party

Shropshire councillor and former mayor of Oswestry, Duncan Kerr, said he would draw only the UK average wage if he became MP and donate the rest to local charities.

Kirsty Walmsley – Reform UK

The daughter of councillors, she herself became the UK’s youngest councillor when she was elected onto the now-defunct Oswestry Borough Council at the age of 21.

She said: “The reason I have put myself forward to stand as a candidate is because I believe the people of North Shropshire deserve an independent champion who truly knows and cares about the area.”

Russell Dean – The Party Party

The consultant for a yacht broker has said he would be standing on a platform of anti-sleaze and corruption.

Howling Laud Hope – Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Party chairman, Alan Hope, is running in the by-election after his 10 nominations were collected by fellow party member Nick the Incredible Flying Brick.

Colin Drury, our North of England correspondent, writes from the count:

Two hours after the polls closed and, at the counting hall in Shrewsbury, there’s no real certainty yet as to which way the contest may be going.

However suggestions are being made that a better-than-expected Labour showing could deny the Liberal Democrats a famous victory here – and help the Tories to retain the seat.

The Liberal Democrats’ data has shown the party ahead of the Tories – but it has been advised that the finding should be taken with a “huge pinch of salt”.

The data from North Shropshire last week puts the Lib Dems at 43 per cent and the Conservatives at 37 per cent.