Is Israel walking into a trap?

Sam Hawley: Hi, I’m Sam Hawley, coming to you from Gadigal land. This is ABC News Daily. After the horrifying attacks on its citizens, Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas in Gaza. But will the international community tolerate what’s to come? Iran is warning of a regional escalation of the war if Israel continues to kill what it says are civilians in Gaza. Today, Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, explains the history of the disputed territory, and why he thinks Israel is walking into a trap.

Hussein as we watch this war unfold, to understand this conflict, it’s good to step back in history, because it’s a very long and complicated one, isn’t it?

Hussein Ibish: Yes. But basically, the way things got to be as they are between Israel and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, you have to go back to 1947-48, to the creation of the State of Israel. It was accompanied by a war that began as a civil war between Jews and Arabs in Palestine. Eventually, Arab armies intervened. Two things happened that were significant for Gaza. The first is that was retained by an Arab army. The Gaza Strip came under Egyptian control at the end of the fighting in 1948-49. The second thing is that this very sparsely populated territory became filled with refugees from southern Israel, and these Palestinians were very close to the areas they had been depopulated from. They could almost see their old homes and villages just across the border in what became Israel.

Sam Hawley: And then in 1967, there was another war. And this was this is really key.

Hussein Ibish: Yeah, this is key. There was a big Arab-Israeli war in 1967. A lot of territory changed hands, and Israel came into possession of occupied East Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and from Egypt, the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip.

Sam Hawley: So in 1967, there was a war. It only lasted for six days. It was very rapid. And Israel at that time took the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the West Bank from Jordan. And it’s the effects of that war that are still being felt today.

Hussein Ibish: That’s right. In 1979, the Israelis gave the Egyptians the Sinai Peninsula back as part of the peace agreement, but they kept hold of Gaza. The Egyptians didn’t want Gaza. It was full of Palestinians, very densely populated, very wretched, not historically a part of Egypt. And they really didn’t want anything to do with it. Israel retained it and continued the occupation, very similar to the way things have been in occupied East Jerusalem and the West Bank. In 1987 there was a Palestinian uprising. The Islamists in Gaza, the Muslim Brotherhood, felt that they were really losing out, and they formed Hamas as a paramilitary group and political organisation, which they had not had before. And the Israelis really sort of nurtured it. They they didn’t give it money or anything, but they allowed Hamas and the Brothers to do a lot of organising until a Palestinian civil war, basically, or civil conflict in 2007, when Hamas sort of rose up and threw Fatah and the Palestinian Authority out of Gaza. Since then, after 2007, Israel has continued to rule Gaza, but from the outside. They control the airspace, the coastal waters, the electromagnetic spectrum and ports, except for a small one called Rafah, which is controlled by the Egyptians. So basically, Gaza has been rendered an open air prison run by particularly vicious inmates and surrounded by heavily armed prison guards. That is the basic situation.

Sam Hawley: Yes. Okay. So that’s a very brief history, but it’s good to have that because it really explains what we’re talking about today. So Hamas has essentially ruled Gaza since 2007. And there have been skirmishes with Israel since then, but nothing like the scale of the recent attack on Israel. 

News Audio: Israel and Gaza are at war again. Palestinian gunmen have crossed into Israel, opening fire on civilians in a surprise dawn attack.

News Audio: From neighbouring Gaza, Palestinian militants parachute themselves into southern Israel.

News Audio: More than 700 Israelis and 400 Palestinians have been killed, and harrowing accounts are beginning to emerge. Some of the most shocking are from people attacked by Hamas militants at a music festival in southern Israel. At least 260 were killed at that festival alone, and there are claims more than 130 Israelis are being held hostage.

Israeli civilian: I want to ask of Hamas. Don’t hurt little children. Don’t hurt women. If you want me instead, I’m willing to come.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: Israel is at war. But though Israel didn’t start this war, Israel will finish it.

Hussein Ibish: So obviously for both sides, both for Hamas and for Israel. They have concluded that the the old arrangement that existed until two weeks ago is no longer satisfactory to either of them.

Sam Hawley: Alright. And the question then, Hussein, is why now? You see this as a trap.

Hussein Ibish: I do. I think things have gotten gotten really tough for Hamas in the past year or two for various reasons, and they were really looking to break out of the siege, looking to change the rules of the game in their relationship with Israel. And it’s sort of a desperate thing they did in going on this killing spree in southern Israel. And they knew that it was going to result in some unbelievable retaliation. But I think they were hoping to lure the Israelis into Gaza on the ground for urban conflict, house to house stuff, which really plays to the strengths of insurgent and guerilla groups and is not good for large, powerful, regular armies. And ideally, I think they would like the Israelis to reoccupy the streets of Gaza so that they can have a long-term insurgency and kill Israeli soldiers or capture them. And of course, they’re also hoping the fighting spreads to the West Bank, to East Jerusalem, and ideally to involve Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is a really powerful militia group aligned with Iran, much more powerful than Hamas.

Sam Hawley: Aright. So Hamas was seeking to lure Israel into a trap, into urban warfare that would be protracted. It would last a long time.

Hussein Ibish: That’s exactly right. They want the Israeli military at their disposal for constant attacks over the long run. That’s what they’re hoping for.

Sam Hawley: Alright. Well, Israel says it wants to wipe out Hamas, but can it do that with a ground assault?

Hussein Ibish: Well, no, they can’t do it at all because Hamas is a brand. Hamas is not a bunch of individuals, nor is it equipment and infrastructure. It’s a brand. So as long as you have a group of Palestinians calling themselves Hamas, there is a Hamas. So Israel is going to face a very difficult choice of either allowing Hamas to crawl out of the rubble when the smoke clears, and declare victory, and begin to reassert their control. And they will be battered and bloodied and greatly cut down to size, but still they might be politically benefited. Or they can reoccupy Gaza. And that’s exactly what Hamas would ideally like.

Sam Hawley: Hmm. Let’s have a look at what the world’s response might be to this. Iran is a supporter of Hamas. It funds it. It has warned if Israel doesn’t stop what it characterises as the killing of civilians in Gaza, this war could open up on multiple fronts. What does it mean by that?

Hussein Ibish: Well, I think Iran probably very much wants to avoid getting involved at all. And I think they even would like to hold Hezbollah back, because Hezbollah is a very potent deterrent to Israel. They have hundreds of thousands of missiles that could reach anywhere in Israel.

Sam Hawley: And Hezbollah, that’s the militant group in southern Lebanon.

Hussein Ibish: Yes, they are probably the most potent non-state military in human history. They’re no joke. So I think Iran would like to hold back. Hezbollah, too, would like to hold back. But that calculation could change. There are lots of smaller groups in Lebanon that could attack Israel. And then Israel retaliates and Hezbollah feels it has to do something. And that kind of tit for tat can spiral out of control very quickly. And the biggest danger is that if Israel finds itself fighting a prolonged multi-front war, they may say, look, we’re done with these proxies. We’re going to take this war to its source. We’re not going to be bedevilled by these small groups. This is Iran, and we’re going to strike Iran because that is the author. And then you really have a very dangerous situation.

Sam Hawley: So, Hussein, is there any path forward for peace at this point?

Hussein Ibish: Peace? No, not in the immediate term. I think there is a path to limiting the conflict, which would be if Israel were wise. It really is up to the Israelis. I think, more than anything else, they hold all the cards, and it is they who are deciding how far they are going to go. Israel has a choice. It can either give Hamas what it wants and get involved in a long, protracted struggle in Gaza, or it can be wise and say, look, if we were restrained, did as much damage as we think we need to do to restore deterrence, make our point, engage in disproportionate response as is our doctrine, but not go crazy, then we can deny Hamas what it wants, which is a reoccupation and a long term ground conflict with Israel in close quarter urban settings that favour guerilla groups. And so we’ll see. It’s more likely, I fear, that they will feel the need for revenge more than the need for wisdom and cunning.

Sam Hawley: And Hussein in this long history of the dispute over this territory. What will be the lasting impact of what we’re seeing today, in your view?

Hussein Ibish: Well, I think it depends what the Israelis do if they decimate Hamas, blow up as much of its infrastructure and equipment as they can, and kill as many of their cadres and leaders and maybe even their families as they can, and then get out. Then we could see some kind of a return to the status quo ante, to the way things were until two weeks ago with Hamas in Gaza surrounded by Israel and it just limping forward. If, however, they reinstitute an occupation of Gaza, I think you will see an insurgency and it will be a very bloody contest over time. But it’s very possible that the trauma of the amount of killing and displacement that may go on in Gaza in the next few days, weeks and months will be so atrocious that it makes the enmity between Israelis and Palestinians, especially in Gaza, that much worse, and creates a generation of Palestinians who are not only traumatised, but even more radicalised than they already are, and a bunch of Israelis who think of them as less than human. These are the actions of people who don’t recognise the full humanity of the other side. And this is the great tragedy.

Sam Hawley: Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. This episode was produced by Bridget Fitzgerald, Lara Corrigan, Nell Whitehead and Sam Dunn, who also did the mix. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I’m Sam Hawley. To get in touch with the team, please email us on [email protected]. Thanks for listening.