How Netanyahu changed Israel – ABC listen

Sam Hawley: Hi, I’m Sam Hawley, coming to you from Gadigal land. This is ABC News Daily. While Benjamin Netanyahu oversees the war in Gaza, he’s governing a traumatised nation. That’s questioning why the terrorist attack by Hamas came without warning on October the 7th. Before the attack, the Israeli leader was under huge political pressure over domestic issues. But were there decisions he made that may have increased the risk? Today, Guy Ziv, from the American University’s Center for Israel studies on how long Netanyahu will be able to hold on to power.

Guy. We’re going to discuss the leadership and history of Benjamin Netanyahu, also known, of course, as Bibi. But before we do that, just briefly, let’s go back to that moment. Hamas launched its terrorist attack in southern Israel. Netanyahu responded almost immediately in declaring war.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: Israel is at war. We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way.

Sam Hawley: How did the Israeli people respond to that?

Guy Ziv: This really came as a major surprise, and the fact that they were able to penetrate Israel by air, land and sea, this was just the last thing anybody expected.

Sam Hawley: Yeah, of course. And very quickly, attention was on the fact that Israel was completely caught off guard by this attack, that the intelligence agencies had completely missed it.

Guy Ziv: That’s right. It’s interesting that you had several major figures in the security establishment who took responsibility, and there was sort of a mea culpa by them. But the one person who never took responsibility, who never took the blame was Netanyahu. And so it was reported shortly after the tragic events of October 7th, that he was preparing to blame the military for the failure and the intelligence community as well. And there was a tweet that his Twitter account put out, essentially implying that they were to blame and that therefore, you know, how could he have known about it if he didn’t get the information, something to that effect. So after a major public outcry, including from Benny Gantz, who was in the opposition now joining Netanyahu in this kind of national unity emergency, government told him he needs to retract that. And it was totally inappropriate. So Netanyahu, in a kind of a rare moment of contrition, deleted that controversial tweet and then tweeted out something similar to an apology.

Sam Hawley: Yes, that’s very rare for Netanyahu. He rarely speaks, of course, as well to the press. And he waited 21 days after the war began to hold a media conference. How did that go?

Guy Ziv: Well, I should also just say he rarely speaks to the Israeli press, but he does have kind of no problem going on American media and international media where he feels he shines. But it’s the Israeli media that he tends to avoid. And so in those press conferences that he gave since the eighth, he basically issued a lot of threats towards Israel’s enemies, to a certain extent, political grandstanding. There was nothing really new in what he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: In fighting Hamas and the Iranian axis of terror. Israel is fighting the enemies of civilisation itself. Victory over these enemies begins with moral clarity.

Sam Hawley: Before we move on, let’s just touch on how the Israeli people are feeling about how this war is progressing. Of course, more than 1400 people were killed and more than 200 taken hostage during that horrific attack by Hamas. And the civilian death toll is rising in Gaza. Hamas, who runs the health ministry, says more than 3000 children have been killed.

Guy Ziv: The Israelis are practically united in the sense that Israel needs to eliminate, or at least severely cripple Hamas. So the Israelis are pretty unified behind the notion that Hamas needs to be destroyed. But there are also concerns and definitely some pressure, political pressure within Israel, to make sure that those hostages return. I think they’re concerned about the civilian toll, both in Gaza, both among Palestinians and Israelis, of course, because there’ll be Israeli soldiers, not civilians, who are already dying. They are concerned about civilians in Gaza. They’re also concerned about the image that Israel has internationally, given the high death toll. And it’s a real problem, given that Hamas uses human shields and for years has been doing so.

Sam Hawley: Well, Guy, let’s now have a look at Netanyahu’s past. Because to understand the conflict today, that’s important. He’s Israel’s longest serving prime minister. He’s been in power for nearly 16 years, such a long time. But in recent years he’s come across quite a bit of trouble, hasn’t he, to the extent that there are criminal charges against him.

Guy Ziv: So in recent years, the key problem that he’s faced are all of these distractions, what one might call distractions. So first of all, there is, as you point out, a criminal trial. And because of the criminal trial, he was indicted in 2019 with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate scandals.

News Reporter: It’s alleged he requested and received lavish gifts from Australian businessman James Packer and Hollywood film producer Arnon Milchan, giving Mr. Milchan favours in return. In the most serious case, it’s claimed the Prime Minister pushed through beneficial laws for Israel’s biggest telecommunications company in exchange for positive media coverage.

Guy Ziv: So, because he’s a sitting prime minister with a criminal trial underway, he has been putting his personal and political needs first and has been consumed, of course, with the trial. Then in order for him to establish the current government after he won the elections last year, the only way he could do so was to establish a far right and religious government, because those were the only coalition partners who’d be willing to sit with a prime minister who’s under indictment. That resulted in the judicial overhaul agenda. And you may recall that shortly after he formed this government in December, you had massive weekly demonstrations. And it really tore our society apart because Israelis, including some of his own supporters, some of his own voters, felt that the idea of weakening the Supreme Court was going to lead to the demise of Israeli democracy.

Israeli Protester: Myself, my kids and my grandkids losing their hope to live here in a democratic state.

Israeli Protester: It scares me that we’re still a few hours away from turning from a democracy to a dictatorship.

Sam Hawley: So Benjamin Netanyahu, to stay in power, went to the lengths of forming a far right coalition. So a far right government that wanted far right judicial reform laws, that would mean Israel’s Supreme Court would be unable to reverse any decisions made by the government. People didn’t like that. We saw huge demonstrations across Israel. That’s right.

Guy Ziv: That resulted in thousands of reservists from the Israel Defence Forces, from the IDF, including many from elite units of special forces, to announce that they’re going to stop their volunteer service as long as his government pursues the judicial overhaul. And so this harmed the IDF’s morale, its cohesion, its operational readiness. And senior members of the security establishment warned him, warned Netanyahu that this was going to really impair Israel’s ability to defend itself, in case other parties or other countries or other non-state actors in this case were going to try to exploit this weakness and, of course, exploit it they did.

Sam Hawley: So what you’re saying is that political turmoil we discussed played in to the lead up to the terrorist attack and then this war?

Guy Ziv: Yes, I think it played a role.

Sam Hawley: And what does it mean for negotiations, for peace, for a two state solution that is an independent state of Palestine alongside the State of Israel? Is that something Netanyahu actually wants?

Guy Ziv: Apparently not. Netanyahu did, under heavy international pressure, in particular pressure from then-President Barack Obama. In June of 2009, he announced he now supported the two state solution.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: In my vision of peace in this small land of ours.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: Free peoples live side by side in amity and mutual respect. Each will have its own flag, its own national anthem, and its own government. Neither will threaten the security or survival of the other. 

Guy Ziv: So this was kind of a very public announcement. It got a lot of attention. But shortly after that announcement, he began to put all sorts of obstacles along the way. And his idea in general has been to manage the conflict rather than trying to resolve it. And so he really believed that he was fully capable of kind of kicking the can down the road on the two state solution. One of his failed strategies was to weaken Mahmoud Abbas, who’s the president of the Palestinian Authority, and by weakening Abbas and strengthening Hamas in Gaza. He felt that this helped him to kick the can down the road on the two state solution, that there would be less pressure to go ahead and do that, since Hamas, of course, rejects any sort of accommodation with Israel or rejects the two state solution or any other solution.

Sam Hawley: Okay, so hang on. Just so I’ve got what you’re saying, right? He may have wanted Netanyahu, Hamas to remain in power in Gaza to kill off any sort of negotiation with Palestinian leaders.

Guy Ziv: That’s right. So he actually tolerated Hamas attacks over the years. Traumatised Israelis in the South and felt that he could bypass. Really bypass the Palestinian issue altogether by forging normalisation agreements with the Arab countries, with the kind of so-called moderate Sunni Arab regimes like the UAE and Bahrain, Morocco. And he was hoping for Saudi Arabia next, which now, of course, is on hold.

Sam Hawley: And now, of course, he’s leading a war. Tell me what happens when this war ends. How likely is it, then, that Netanyahu’s political career continues, or will it end with the war?

Guy Ziv: I think it will end with the war. The problem is, we don’t know when the war will end. We don’t know how it will end. We don’t know if it’s going to spread into a broader regional war. I think it’s easier to say that Netanyahu’s days are probably numbered. I think there’ll be some reckoning after the war is over.

Sam Hawley: Guy Ziv is an associate professor in the School of International Services at the American University, and associate director of the university’s Center for Israel Studies. This episode was produced by Bridget Fitzgerald, Nell Whitehead, Sam Dunn and Anna John, who also did the mix are supervising producer is David Coady. I’m Sam Hawley. ABC NewsDaily will be back again tomorrow. To get in touch with the team, please email us on [email protected]. Thanks for listening.