Five key takeaways from new Climate Change Commission reports

New Zealand’s climate goals could be all but reshaped under draft proposals released for consultation by the Climate Change Commission on Monday evening.

Three major reports were published by the commission as part of regular reviews it undertakes of the country’s climate targets. These documents canvassed whether New Zealand’s 2050 net zero and methane emissions targets should be changed, whether international aviation and shipping should be included in our climate policies and proposed an ambitious goal for the next five-year carbon budget.

Newsroom has gathered the key takeaways from the three reports below.

1. Climate change is getting worse faster than expected and we should consider strengthening our 2050 targets

In its review of the 2050 target, the commission examined whether there has been significant change in any of nine areas since the goal was set in 2019. It found that in four topics – the state of global action on climate change, scientific understanding of climate change, technological developments and risks associated with emissions removals – there had been evidence of major change.

While New Zealand’s 2050 target – which requires methane from livestock and waste to fall 24 to 47 percent and all other climate pollution to reach net zero – was nearly world-leading when the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019, many other countries have now one-upped us. Most of our comparator nations have all-gases net zero targets for 2050 or earlier, so no special carveouts for agriculture. Even nations with a similar proportion of agricultural emissions, like Ireland and Costa Rica, have gone further than us.

On the science, the commission found there had been several new developments but the only ones which reached the “significant” bar related to climate impacts. “Evidence now shows that the risks from climate change … are greater than previously known, and that these impacts will occur at lower temperatures than expected in 2019,” the commission wrote.

Crucially, the commission didn’t think there has been any “important or notable change in the understanding of the physical science of methane” that would necessitate watering down the methane targets. It specifically stated it had “found no evidence to support weakening the current 2050 target” even as the Government has launched a separate review of the methane target with an eye to weakening it.

The arrival in overseas markets of new methane-inhibiting technology for livestock and new understandings of the risks to carbon stored in forests also gave reason for potentially strengthening the target, the commission said.

2. We are making more progress in reaching our climate goals than expected

In almost every sector, progress on reducing emissions is more advanced or looking more plausible than when the Climate Change Commission last advised on targets in 2021. The three big drivers of this are much more rapid uptake of electric vehicles than expected, the previous government’s subsidies for decarbonising industry which were axed by the coalition and a spike in pine tree planting which has brought forward emissions removals not expected until later decades.

The tree planting in particular has prompted the commission to recommend revising the carbon budgets covering the years 2026 to 2035 to be more ambitious, as there is now more room for emissions reductions. New Zealand is now on track to reach net zero long-lived emissions by 2042 although we still aren’t on track to achieve the 2050 methane target.

There are also a handful of smaller areas where progress has turned out to be better than expected, as in the reduction of private vehicle usage. Two areas where things haven’t worked out as well as hoped are in native tree planting and in aviation. The latter is now expected to produce 22 percent more emissions in 2040 than previously.

It is also worth noting that these projections are based on the state of climate policy as of July 1 last year and don’t take into account changes made subsequently by the new Government. The commission says it hopes to provide updated projections in its final advice later this year.

3. Acting ambitiously on climate change will offer net social and economic benefits as compared to business-as-usual

Decarbonising road transport, aviation, residential and commercial buildings and industrial process heat will offer billions of dollars of savings in the decades to 2050, the Climate Change Commission’s analysis found. In the short term, the cost of this fuel switching will cost the country, with net costs peaking at $750 million a year. But by 2034, savings would begin to outweigh costs and by the 2040s New Zealand could save $2 billion a year in direct costs.

Indirect economic effects are harder to quantify, the commission found. GDP in 2050 could be 1.6 percent lower than in a business-as-usual scenario, but this figure doesn’t include the costs of climate impacts or the co-benefits from climate policy for human health. When the commission analysed the health impacts of moving to electric vehicles, it found these could be as high as $2.7 billion per year, outweighing the other costs of the transition.

“We are confident that if the country took the actions in the [demonstration path] the overall effect would be economic and social gains,” the commission wrote. “Transitioning to electric vehicles and reducing vehicle use could save $23 billion by 2040 by reducing public health costs and improving productivity. It would also improve quality of life.”

4. We could reach net zero emissions in the 2030s under the commission’s demonstration pathway

While the business-as-usual scenario is more optimistic than in prior years, it still isn’t sufficient to fully meet New Zealand’s climate goals. In addition to producing net economic and social benefits, the Climate Change Commission says its demonstration pathway can achieve those targets.

Under the pathway, methane emissions from livestock and waste would fall 26 percent by 2040 – within the range required by the 2050 methane target. Over the fourth carbon budget period from 2036 to 2040, New Zealand would also sequester more carbon dioxide in trees than it would emit. In other words, we’d not only reach net zero emissions before 2040 but actually move to net negative emissions.

These steps, while ambitious, may be needed to meet the ambitious target the commission has set for the fourth budget. New Zealand should be capped at emitting just 26.8 million tonnes of climate pollution each year from 2036 to 2040, the commission recommended. That’s nearly a two-thirds decrease from the 73.3 million tonnes emitted in 2021 and a significant step down from the 44.2 million tonnes the commission believes New Zealand should be limited to for the previous budget, spanning 2031 to 2035.

5. Including international shipping and aviation in our targets would enable us to better do our part in the fight against climate change

New Zealand’s climate targets currently only cover activities that occur entirely within our borders. A flight from Wellington to Auckland will be recorded against our emissions tally and carbon budgets, but a far dirtier flight from Auckland to Chicago is ignored. The final piece of work the Climate Change Commission published on Monday looks at whether emissions from international flights and shipping should be added to our targets.

While the commission didn’t make a particular recommendation and asked for feedbck from the public, it did suggest that including these emissions in our accounting is more consistent with the global fight against climate change.

“Our analysis also shows current global efforts in international shipping and aviation are unlikely to achieve the emissions reductions required to meet the goals these sectors have set to help limit warming to 1.5C. Additional action is needed from individual states,” the commission found.

“Our early finding is that an approach combining strong international and domestic action is likely to be in Aotearoa New Zealand’s best interests, and to result in the greatest reductions of international shipping and aviation emissions.”