Could Putin’s Russia suddenly collapse?

Sam Hawley: Hi, I’m Sam Hawley, coming to you from Gadigal Land. This is ABC News Daily. It was a brief act of mutiny lasting just 36 hours. But what does the armed rebellion in Russia across the weekend mean for the future of the Russian state and its leader, Vladimir Putin? Today, co-host of the Kremlin File podcast, Olga Lautman, on what was the biggest challenge to Putin’s leadership in decades and what might come next. Olga, what a week in Russia. An attempted coup followed by a quick retreat by its instigator, Yevgeny Prigozhin. It’s fascinating to watch what’s been unfolding.

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Yeah, this has been definitely a very captivating weekend and week.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia: Vladimir Putin is fighting for his survival. The Wagner group of mercenaries, which Putin has relied on so heavily to fight his war in Ukraine, has gone rogue.

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: We basically saw it all come to a head when Prigozhin decided, you know, to storm towards Moscow. I do believe that this was planned months in advance and executed in a professional style.

Sam Hawley: Okay. So Prigozhin, he’s the head of this Wagner group. He has since turned up in Belarus, hasn’t he? Because the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has confirmed that since.

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus: Our first round of talks lasted about 30 minutes. And we talked mostly in swear words.

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Yes. And I frankly don’t believe the whole story, that he will go to Belarus and basically live in exile because Minsk is identical to Moscow. He is at risk in Belarus as he’s at risk inside of Russia. The chatter is that Putin is looking to eliminate him.

Sam Hawley: President Lukashenko – he was or he says he was vital in stopping this mutiny.

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus: I suggested to Putin not to hurry. I said, Let us talk to Prigozhin and his commanders. He replied, Look, Alexander, it’s useless. He won’t even pick up the phone and doesn’t want to speak to nobody. I said, a bad peace is better than any war. Do not hurry. I will try to contact him.

Sam Hawley: What’s he had to say again?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: I frankly do not believe that story. Because anyone who has watched Lukashenko over the past, you know, a few years, particularly since 2019, he’s been literally the puppet of the Kremlin. But it’s not plausible, just like it’s not plausible that, you know, the Wagnerites and Prigozhin are going to move their forces into Belarus.

Sam Hawley: It’s hard to get a clear reading of exactly what’s going on. Vladimir Putin – he has spoken as well. He spoke in a televised address to the nation after this attempted coup and then again to Russian troops. What’s his message about all of this?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Well, it’s very interesting because since Putin came to power, he has never lost his cool. He’s always controlled the narrative inside the country. That was the first time that you actually saw him, you know, in fear.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia: The organisers betrayed their country, their people, and even those who were drawn into their crime…

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Basically, he issued a very strong statement against Prigozhin and against the Wagnerites without naming Wagner or Prigozhin. But clearly we knew who he was referring to, called them traitors, and that, you know, they will be prosecuted for treason. Now, he’s basically trying to whitewash what happened. And that actually infuriated all the propagandists. I mean, they were livid. The comments that were coming out from very influential military bloggers who, you know, each have a million plus followers. They were enraged with the fact that this was Putin’s speech and that basically they were like, you might as well not have come and delivered anything.

Sam Hawley: Okay. So in this address to troops, President Putin also thanked the Russian military and security forces for preventing what he said would have been a civil war. What about Prigozhin? What’s he had to say? Because he did release an audio statement.

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: So he released an audio statement basically, again, you know, showing that this is far from over because he made, you know, digs at the Russian Ministry of Defence. Prigozhin continues to be critical. This is far from over. And as far as Putin, Putin addressing the military, you know, he clearly realises, if anything, these events over the past weekend showed Putin very well that he does not know who he can trust within his security services, Ministry of Defence and Intelligence Services, because you had these columns of tanks driving through cities, taking over one of the most strategic and important military headquarters in the Southern District in Rostov, and then driving straight to practically 200km from Moscow. And no one pretty much was stopping them except bulldozers and a few helicopters that the Wagnerites shot down. So, you know, he right now himself is worried. And I think he’s trying to show his loyalty to the military, but he understands that it was the military and the factions within different agencies that allowed Prigozhin to go this far.

Sam Hawley: So Putin, Olga, he’s clearly trying to paint this as something that he was always in control of and that he’s still in complete control. But you’ve said that, you know, this isn’t over yet, so what threats could Putin face now?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Oh, this is the beginning of the end for Putin. Now his end to power, I believe, is going to escalate because, you know, he showed his weakness. He was in hiding as tanks were storming through Russian cities heading towards the seat of power. We’re going to continue seeing Putin unravelling, his stability unravelling and Russia unravelling. And I think it’s going to escalate from here.

Sam Hawley: Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State. He says the aborted revolt really does expose the cracks in Putin’s regime.

Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State: They’ve had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against mercenaries of Putin’s own making.

Sam Hawley: You mentioned Russia unravelling and I can see in the UK Whitehall has issued a warning that we should prepare for the sudden collapse of Russia. What do you think it means by that?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: I absolutely am in agreement with the statement because I’ve been documenting all the signs over the past several months, and I absolutely believe it, because look, right now, Putin over the past several months, you have had Prigozhin crossing unthinkable lines. You have had the military bloggers crossing unthinkable lines in supporting Prigozhin. And then you just have all these different factions fighting with each other. I mean, over the past six months, there has been practically a war between the Chechens and the Russian Orthodox nationals over a mosque that is supposed to be built inside of Moscow. And then you have the Chechens fighting with the Wagnerites. You are going to have a lot of factions inside of Russia because it’s a very vast country with many minorities. Usually this is how it happens. You see these fractions appear and then it swiftly escalates and then suddenly you find yourself with a collapsed Russia and then with Russia and historically, it usually happens very quick.

Sam Hawley: Yeah, right. Okay. So as you mentioned, Russia is a fragile, multi-ethnic state. So there’s a lot at play there. In your mind, if the demise of Putin comes, how will it come about? Will there be a successful coup? Is there an uprising? What’s the most likely scenario in your mind?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: Well, the most likely scenario is it will come from within. It’s not going to be an uprising of the people. It will either be an uprising of militants or various factions, or it just comes from his own the people around him who will take him out because the elite and the oligarchs and pretty much everyone surrounding Putin have really come to the realisation that they will not have Ukraine and that Ukraine will win. And with every month that goes by, the West is providing more weapons, Ukraine is getting stronger and they realise Putin is not going to fulfil his objectives. So they definitely will move to take him out and it will be from inside either one of his agencies or it could be through Prigozhin – we might see an act two.

Sam Hawley: Okay. But Olga, even if Putin is gone, even if he is removed from power and that is still a big if, I suppose, what sort of Russia will we have? Will it be a better Russia or do we not really know?

Olga Lautman, co-host of Kremlin File podcast: I hate to say it, but it definitely will not be a better Russia just for the fact that it’s the security services who control the country. The system needs to be broken. And until that system of corruption and betrayal and, you know, and cruelty is broken, anyone who is put as the face of the new Kremlin is not going to change the real nature of what is happening inside.

Sam Hawley: Olga Lautman is a senior researcher at the Centre for European Policy Analysis and a co-host of the Kremlin File podcast. She is based in New York City. According to US officials quoted in the New York Times, at least one senior Russian general had advanced knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans. This episode was produced by Veronica Apap, David Coady, Flint Duxfield and Sam Dunn, who also did the mix. Our supervising producer is Stephen Smiley. I’m Sam Hawley. To get in touch with the team, email us on [email protected]. Thanks for listening.