Auburn hurts its No. 1 seed hopes

February 20, 2022 Stan

On the same day Auburn was honored by the NCAA men’s basketball selection committee with a No. 1 seed in the top 16-seed reveal Saturday, the Tigers suffered just their third loss of the season to loosen their stranglehold on the No. 1 seed line with Selection Sunday three weeks from now.

Auburn lost a 63-62 nail-biter at Florida, despite 28 points from freshman standout Jabari Smith. That’s an outcome that won’t put the Tigers’ excellent profile in jeopardy of falling to the No. 2 seed line – yet. The Gators’ upset likely resuscitates their once-depleted NCAA Tournament at-large bid chances and moves them closer to the bubble.

We’re on the home stretch of the 2021-22 season, with the final three weeks before the NCAA Tournament playing a pivotal part in seeding all 68 teams.

That’s especially true for bubble teams, which can vault into the projected field with a signature victory or torpedo to the wrong side of the bubble with a setback. Such was the case for bubble teams Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oklahoma – teams that lost important games to put hurt their tourney résumés. Bubble team Iowa, on the other hand, got just what it needed in dispatching Ohio State on the road in Big Ten action. Same goes for Virginia in edging out Miami (Fla.) on the road.

Auburn Tigers guard Allen Flanigan (22) dribbles the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Billy Donovan Court at Exactech Arena.

A look at the winners and losers from Saturday’s action:

Texas Tech. The Red Raiders (21-6, 10-4 Big 12) got their second dose of revenge over former coach Chris Beard, this time beating Texas 61-55 on the road. That’s another Quadrant 1 victory to bulk up the profile on a day when Texas Tech was honored with a No. 3 seed by the selection committee in the top 16 reveal.

Kentucky. The Wildcats (22-5, 11-3 SEC) are playing their best basketball here in mid-February as the postseason nears, taking care of business at home for a 90-81 victory over Alabama. Kellan Grady drained seven three-pointers in the win, illuminating the weaponry that coach John Calipari has in his arsenal. That main weapon, of course, is Oscar Tshiebwe (21 points, 14 rebounds), who continues to have an All-American-caliber campaign.

Illinois. The Fighting Illini (19-7, 12-4 Big Ten) got 27 points from All-American big man Kofi Cockburn to help fuel a 79-74 win on the road vs. Michigan State, its second victory over the Spartans this year. The selection committee seeded Illinois at No. 3 in the top 16 reveal and this Quadrant 1 win will only build the seeding case further.

Iowa. The Hawkeyes (17-7, 7-7 Big Ten) picked up the marquee win it was looking for to add to its tournament portfolio, shaking off Ohio State 75-62. The road win catapults Iowa from a No. 11 seed to a safer No. 10 seed range. For a Big Ten bubble team, there are ample opportunities to enhance credentials and Iowa certainly seized that opportunity Saturday.

Iowa Hawkeyes forward Patrick McCaffery (22) goes for the dunk as he gets his shot blocked by Ohio State Buckeyes forward E.J. Liddell (32) during the first half at Value City Arena.

North Carolina. The Tar Heels (18-8, 10-5 ACC) picked up a Quadrant 1 road win over fellow bubble team Virginia Tech in a 65-57 outcome. North Carolina bounced back from a resume-staining loss to Pittsburgh earlier this week. Starting the day as one of the “first four out,” Saturday’s victory very well could flip that to “last four in” on the updated bracketology projection.

Virginia. The Cavaliers (17-10, 11-6 ACC) edged out Miami (Fla.) 74-71 and this is a Quadrant 1 road victory to spruce up UVA’s portfolio. Virginia started the day on the “next four out” list of bracketology and now are much closer to inclusion in the field of 68. Home games against Duke and Florida State are on tap next week and those outcomes will determine these team’s at-large chances.

Losers

Auburn. The Tigers (24-3, 12-2 SEC) nearly came back but fell to Florida 63-62. The loss doesn’t move Auburn out of first place in a crowded SEC, but it tightens up the league race with a chasing Kentucky squad on its heels. Coach Bruce Pearl’s team has seven Quadrant 1 wins but will likely need to add a few more if it wants to out-duel the chasing No. 2 seeds for a top seed on Selection Sunday.

Tennessee. The Volunteers (19-7, 10-4 SEC) got outmatched in a 58-4 road loss to Arkansas. That snapped a five-game winning streak that included an upset of Kentucky earlier in the week. Named as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA’s top-16 reveal, now Tennessee now drifts closer towards the No. 4 seed line.

Notre Dame. In a battle between two ACC bubble teams, the Fighting Irish (19-8, 12-4 ACC) came up short in a 79-74 loss to Wake Forest. Despite being near the top of the ACC title race – an area the committee won’t examine – Notre Dame’s overall body of work isn’t getting it done and keeps it near the dangerous No. 11 seed territory. There were only two Quadrant 1 wins on the résumé and Saturday served as a lost chance to change that.

Kansas State. The Wildcats (14-11, 6-7 Big 12) lost in overtime 82-79 to Oklahoma State and further hurt its at-large bid hopes. KSU started the day as a play-in No. 12 seed in the latest bracketology. Saturday’s outcome almost assuredly will shove this team onto the wrong side of the bubble and out of the projected field. A NET score in the 60s and non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 295th in the country is outweighing the four Quadrant 1 wins on KSU’s profile.

Oklahoma. The Sooners (14-13, 4-10 Big 12) started the day on the outside looking in as one of the “first four out” in the latest bracket projection. And following a 75-54 loss to Iowa State, now Oklahoma may be out of contention for an at-large bid for good. Even though the committee won’t pay attention to an ugly conference record, there just aren’t enough overall wins on the profile here as it stands.

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.