US midterm elections 2022: ‘Red wave’ fails to materialise as Kentucky rejects anti-abortion measure – live | US midterm elections 2022

The New York Post, in its front page this morning, crowned Florida Ron DeSantis as “DeFuture” – perhaps a blow to Donald Trump, who once considered the newspaper his favorite.

Miranda Bryant writes:

Geoff Duncan, the Republican lieutenant governor of Georgia, said he expects the state’s Senate race to go to a runoff.

Having looked at the figures, he told CNN that he expects the midterms race between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, who are locked in a neck and neck race with 49.4% and 48.5% of the vote respectively, to be too close to call.

Georgia requires a majority to win statewide office, which means if neither candidate passes the 50% threshhold there will be a runoff on 6 December.

With the Senate race so close, this could mean a long wait for control of the chamber to be decided.

Duncan also said that the midterms marked a “pivot point” for the Republican party and that former president Donald Trump is “turning from a movement to a distraction”.

In their newsletter this morning, Punchbowl News paints the scene of how House Republicans were taking the election results in DC as they were coming in:

To give a sense of how much of a shock this was to the Washington political establishment, consider this – House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s team and allies were spread across two downtown hotels, ready to celebrate victory and their new majority. The DCCC had no public event or party scheduled.

But McCarthy’s Election Night bash ended up as more of a ghost town than celebratory party. For hours, dozens of GOP staffers milled around an open bar, nervously sipping drinks while watching Fox News. Next door in the ballroom, a stage emblazoned with “TAKE BACK THE HOUSE” remained empty.

When McCarthy finally emerged just before 2 a.m., he said “it is clear that we are going to take the House back.” McCarthy led off by hailing GOP gains in New York and prematurely claimed that the party had unseated DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District. That race hasn’t been called yet, although Maloney is trailing GOP challenger Mike Lawler by several thousand votes.

This is Lauren Aratani taking over for Martin Belam. It’s just after 7am here in New York, and Americans are waking up to some surprising midterm election results as ballots were counted overnight. The red wave that was predicted by many did not come to fruition, with Democrats winning some key races in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Texas.

Control of the House and Senate are still up in the air, but what seems to be clear is that the election was a disappointment for Trumpism. On Fox News last night, Marc Thiessen said that results were “an absolute disaster for the Republican party” as it embraced Maga.

Matt Lewis, a columnist for the Daily Beast, noted that the red wave seems to be more of a ripple, and that it was “a pretty good election night for normal Republicans, when compared to the more extreme MAGA Trumpy Republicans”.

What this means for the future of Trumpism – or the man himself, who is slated to make an announcement next Tuesday – is still unclear. Perhaps some Republicans are quickly getting the hint: JD Vance, who won a Senate seat in Ohio last night and who Trump stumped over the weekend, did not mention the former president in his victory speech.

Mike Allen at Axios has described the midterms as “Trump’s awful night”. In today’s Axios AM email, Allen writes:

Former president Trump is facing waves of blame after key Republican candidates lost in midterms. Regardless of the reality with Republican primary voters, Republican elites – and other anti-Trump Republicans – sense blood in the water. There’s an increased likelihood of a larger, more boisterous primary field competing against Trump in 2024.

Many of former president Trump’s handpicked candidates were defeated or struggled in otherwise winnable races — a lineup of underachievers.

Trump’s planned rally at Mar-a-Lago next Tuesday, where he’s expected to announce a 2024 presidential campaign, now won’t come after a Republican landslide. Instead, it will follow an election where Democrats have a solid chance to hold or even expand their hold on the Senate — and where Republicans fell way short of their expectations for a sizeable red wave.

Trump constrained his party’s coalition in states where he showed up. Trump’s promotion of candidates outside the political mainstream – or celebrities without political experience – proved to be costly for Republicans.

Some historic firsts were made in the midterms. Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders has been elected as governor of Arkansas, making her the first women to govern the state.

Democrat Becca Balint became the first woman and the first openly gay person to represent the state of Vermont in Congress. Vermont has the distinction of being the last state to send a woman to Congress.

And at just 25, Maxwell Frost has taken Val Demings’ seat in the House, to become the first person to represent Gen Z up at the Capitol.

My colleagues Joan E Greve and Sam Levin have a fuller look at some of the people who made history yesterday here: First Gen Z member elected as midterms could usher in a more diverse Congress

Nicola Slawson

Here is how my colleague Nicola Slawson has summed up the elections for today’s edition of our First Thing newsletter, which should be hitting in-boxes around the world soon:

Democrats have reason for cautious optimism this morning, as some of their endangered candidates appear likely to emerge victorious in the midterm elections, but Republicans still enjoy a narrow advantage in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. The Senate is too close to call, with the race in Nevada coming down to the wire and Georgia likely to go to a runoff in December.

Election forecasts had favored Republicans in the final days of campaigning. The president’s party typically loses seats in the midterms, and Joe Biden’s low approval rating, combined with concerns about the state of the US economy, had lowered Democrats’ expectations.

But some key races were tilting toward Democrats, including one of the biggest prizes of the night: a ferociously contested Senate race in Pennsylvania between Mehmet Oz, a Republican backed by Donald Trump, and the Democrat John Fetterman, who has been battling to assure voters he is fit for office after suffering a stroke.

“We held the line,” a teary Fetterman said, declaring victory in a speech to supporters early this morning.

Who will win control of Congress? With many races still too close to call, control of Congress – and the future of Biden’s agenda – still hangs in the balance. Outcomes of some closely contested elections are not expected for several days, or even weeks. But the early results already returned one certainty: the election is not unfolding as Republicans had hoped.

You can read more here: First Thing: ‘Red wave’ fails to materialise as Democrats beat expectations in the midterms

Niall Stanage at The Hill reminds us that however the House eventually breaks, any Republican majority is going to be narrow at best. He writes:

As of 3:30am ET, there was still no projection from any major news organization that Republicans would take the House at all. House minority leader Kevin McCarthy evinced confidence in that outcome, telling his audience, “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.”

He may be proven right in due course. But the mere fact that it is still in doubt points to how disappointing a night this was for the Republicans.

Just as importantly, even a narrow Republican majority would pose serious challenges for McCarthy, even if he is confirmed as Speaker. In that scenario, the most hardline members of the GOP conference would have very significant leverage – and they are certain to use it.

Stanage also flagged up that two stars of the Democratic party failed again, which will be hard to take:

Stacey Abrams lost to Brian Kemp in Georgia and former representative Beto O’Rourke went down to Greg Abbott in Texas.

The two results were expected – both candidates had lagged by significant margins in polling. But still, each candidate had been seen, not so long ago, as a bright and rising star in the Democratic party.

Their luster is badly dimmed now, given that Tuesday marked Abrams’s second successive loss to Kemp, and O’Rourke’s third setback after losing a 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz and abandoning an underwhelming bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

 

One person who looks likely to benefit from the midterms results is ultra-conservative Republican Ron DeSantis. He was re-elected as governor of Florida, saying that the state is where “woke goes to die”. DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist in the midterm elections, granting him a second term as Florida’s governor. There is every likelihood, as the Republican party comes to terms with these results, that DeSantis could be their frontrunner for the White House nomination in 2024.

 

Young voters often come in for criticism for being apathetic about politics and staying at home, but at least one analyst is laying the cause of the Democrats better than anticipated performance at the feet of Generation Z, who appear from exit polls to have massively skewed towards them.

Adam Gabbatt

Here is a snippet of Adam Gabbatt’s report from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and what could prove to be a significant Senate win for John Fetterman:

The Democratic party received a huge boost in Pennsylvania in the early hours of Wednesday morning, when John Fetterman won the state’s US Senate race to increase his party’s chances of retaining control of the chamber.

Fetterman was declared the winner over Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor, six hours after the polls closed, overturning a Republican-held Senate seat to bolster Democrats’ chances of retaining the chamber.

The Democrat, who suffered a stroke in May which has impacted his ability to speak and process the sound of others’ speech, spent months ahead of Oz in the polls, but the race had tightened in recent weeks after a disappointing performance from Fetterman in a debate.

It made for a jubilant atmosphere at Fetterman’s election night event in Pittsburgh, close to the borough of Braddock where Fetterman spent 13 years as mayor. Fetterman took the stage at 1.15am to declare victory, and said he had fought “for every person that works hard but never got ahead”.

“This campaign has always been about fighting for anyone that ever got knocked down that got back up. This race is for the future of every community across Pennsylvania, for every small town or person that ever felt left behind,” Fetterman said.

“I’m proud of what we ran on,” he said. “Protecting a woman’s right to choose, raising the minimum wage.”

 

Read more of Adam Gabbatt’s report here: Fetterman defeats Oz in Pennsylvania Senate race, giving Democrats a boost

Republican candidates who denied that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election were a prominent feature in the run-up to the midterms, but many of them have failed to get elected. CNN’s Daniel Dale has produced this list of some of the candidates – and what they claimed about the 2020 election – that CNN is currently projecting to lose:

Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania, who made extensive efforts to try to overturn Biden’s win.

Dan Cox of Maryland, who said he didn’t recognize Biden as the president and who co-organized buses to the “Stop the Steal” rally on 6 January.

Paul LePage of Maine, who falsely claimed that 2020 was “clearly a stolen election.”

Lee Zeldin of New York, who, as a member of Congress, voted against certifying Biden’s victories in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Geoff Diehl of Massachusetts, who said in mid-2021 that the election wasn’t stolen but by 2022 was saying that it was certainly stolen.

Scott Jensen of Minnesota, who refused to affirm the legitimacy of Biden’s win and who baselessly suggested imprisoning the state’s Democratic elections chief.

Tim Michels of Wisconsin, who baselessly claimed that “President Trump probably would be president right now if we had election integrity.”

Tudor Dixon of Michigan, who falsely claimed Trump won Michigan in 2020 even though he actually lost by more than 154,000 votes.

Heidi Ganahl of Colorado, who refused on multiple occasions to say whether Biden was the legitimate winner and then selected a promoter of false election conspiracy theories as her running mate.

CNN also lists several candidates who disputed the 2020 election results who have won or are projected to win, including Kay Ivey of Alabama, Brad Little of Idaho, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Greg Abbott of Texas, and Kristi Noem of South Dakota.

The New York Times has estimated that nearly 200 Republicans who have questioned the results of the 2020 election have won races so far in the midterms.

US voters have not just been choosing senators, representatives and governors, they have also voted on a range of issues, as Victoria Bekiempis and Kari Paul report:

Multiple states voted on whether or not to legalize recreational marijuana, part of a growing “green wave” that has already led to many relaxing their laws on cannabis use. In Maryland, voters green-lighted a constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana for adults over 21, making it the 20th state to take that step.

Voters in four other states – including Arkansas, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota – were considering similar marijuana measures in elections seen as a test of legalization’s support in more conservative parts of the country. As of late Tuesday night, the results were mixed, with recreation marijuana measures rejected in Arkansas and North Dakota.

Another ballot measure on legal drug use was in Colorado, where voters weighed a ballot measure that, if passed, would decriminalize psychedelic mushrooms.

Elsewhere, voters weighed up measures on abortion access in the wake of the supreme court’s overturning of Roe v Wade. Reliably, Democratic California and Vermont voted to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions, while in Michigan – a closely watched presidential battleground – voters approved a ballot measure affirming the right to make personal reproductive decisions without interference.

Read more from Victoria Bekiempis and Kari Paul here: Marijuana, abortion, climate crisis – what was down the ballot in the midterms

The Senate seats up for grabs in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin are likely to define the next two years of Joe Biden’s term as president. The crucial swing seat of Pennsylvania has already gone to Democrat John Fetterman. Here is how the others stand:

• Georgia – Democrat Raphael Warnock has a narrow lead over Herschel Walker, but if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the race will head to a runoff – just like two Senate races did in Georgia in 2021.
• Arizona – Senator Mark Kelly leads his Republican rival, venture capitalist Blake Masters, but the race is too early to call.
• Nevada – Republican Adam Laxalt is out in front against Catherine Cortes Masto, but officials have warned there could be a significant delay to getting the results.
• Wisconsin – Ron Johnson looks likely to hold this for the Republicans.

Hugo Lowell is in West Palm Beach, Florida for the Guardian, and reports on Donald Trump’s reaction to results so far:

It was expected to be a moment of triumph for Donald Trump, but it did not quite turn out that way.

The former US president appeared uneasy about underwhelming Republican performance in the midterms at an election watch party he hosted at his plush Mar-a-Lago resort on Tuesday night, after it was clear there would be no “red wave” that he had implored his supporters to deliver.

The election night gathering, organized in the large ballroom at his Florida property, was not an event where the often talkative Trump seemed particularly interested in addressing guests or even speaking to reporters after he delivered a short and solitary speech.

Trump, expected to announce his third campaign for the White House next week, had anticipated strengthening his position as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination by delivering wins for candidates he endorsed, but the results in the most competitive contests were decidedly mixed.

In Pennsylvania, the Democrat John Fetterman defeated the Republican Mehmet Oz to flip a Senate seat, while the Democrat Josh Shapiro won the governor’s race against the Republican Doug Mastriano. In Arizona, Kari Lake and Blake Masters, who followed Trump’s playbook, were both behind Democratic counterparts, though in Ohio, the Republican JD Vance did score a Senate win.

You can read more of Hugo Lowell’s report here: ‘Interesting evening’: Trump has little to say as Republicans fail to deliver

Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Republican Kari Lake in the race for Arizona governor, but the battle for control of the crucial battleground state was too early to call, the AP reports.

Lake has been spreading disinformation that there is an issue with the election, while Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state who rose to prominence defending the integrity of President Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona in 2020, has said: “I have every confidence that the counties administering this election conducted a free and fair election, and their results will be accurate.”

She told supporters gathered in Phoenix. “But they will take time, so prepare for a long evening and a few more days of counting.”

Mail ballots returned Tuesday or shortly before were not yet reported and will be counted in the coming days.

Lake, on the other hand, without producing any evidence, told supporters it was like “groundhog day”.

“We had November 3, 2020, that was called incompetency 101,” Lake said. “We need honest elections and we’re going to bring them to you, Arizona, I assure you of that. The system we have right now does not work.”

Hobbs told her supporters: “I know we’re all eager to find out who won each of these incredibly important races, but we will need to be patient and wait for every vote to be counted. We know my opponent and her allies have been sowing doubt and confusion throughout this campaign, and it’s unacceptable that they were spreading misinformation today while people were exercising their right to vote.”

Here are five quick takeaways from what we know of results so far:

No red wave yet
A wave of Republican wins was expected by almost everyone in the last few weeks of the campaign. While the party performed strongly in Florida under the governor, Ron DeSantis, across the rest of the US many candidates faltered.

Democratic surprise
Democrats were so certain that they were in for a beating that some party figures, such as the California governor, Gavin Newsom, appeared already to be engaging in a blame game. Instead, they unexpectedly held on to vulnerable House seats from Virginia to Texas and scored comfortable wins in the Senate that had been doubted, such as in New Hampshire.

House Republicans have trouble ahead
The current minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, declared victory before all the results were in. “When you awake,” he said, “we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi” – the Democratic speaker – “will be in the minority”. That seemed likely but some projections had the majority at just one seat. Anything nearly so narrow will place McCarthy at the mercy of a fractured caucus.

Trump v DeSantis
Donald Trump’s widely expected imminent announcement of a 2024 White House run now looks slightly less certain – or at least slightly less certain to clear opponents from his path. His main rival in the party, DeSantis, is emerging strengthened after over-performing strongly while high-profile Trump-endorsed candidates struggled.

Democracy defenders fared well – but threat remains
Numerous high-profile Republican candidates who have backed Trump’s lie about electoral fraud lost their races. But due to the fact that election denial has become so commonplace in the Republican party, it is likely to remain a strong force. The Washington Post estimated that at least 159 election-denying Republicans had won their races on Tuesday.

It will still be a while until we know which party will win control of the House and Senate, but Democrats have performed better than expected as a predicted “red wave” of Republican support failed to materialise in the 2022 US midterm elections. John Fetterman has flipped the crucial Pennsylvania Senate seat in favor of Joe Biden, while a slew of election-denying Republican candidates backed by Donald Trump failed to win their raises. The final make-up of the House of Representatives is still too close to call. You can find all of the latest results here, and these are some of the key points so far:

• Democrat John Fetterman has won the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Associated Press confirms, giving Joe Biden’s party another seat in Congress’ upper chamber and increasing their chances of holding it for another two years.
• Nevada Democrats and Republicans have urged patience as residents await to hear the outcome of several razor-thin elections, including the Senate race, one of the tightest in the country, which could end up making all the difference in who controls the Senate. Full results will not come in tonight, officials have said, and may not be known for several days.
• Republican senator Mike Lee has won re-election in Utah. He was up against independent Evan McMullin, who had cast himself as a foe of Trump.
• JD Vance won the Republican Senate race in Ohio, dashing Democrats’ hopes of picking up another seat in the chamber.
• Josh Green, a Democrat and Hawaii’s lieutenant governor, has won the race to be the state’s next governor, the AP projects. Green defeated Duke Aiona, a Republican and former lieutenant governor, by what appeared to be a wide margin.
• Republican incumbent Greg Abbott defeated his Democratic rival, Beto O’Rourke, to win a third term as governor in Texas. Attorney general Ken Paxton, who denied the result of the 2020 presidential election, pushed false conspiracy theories about widespread voter fraud, and remains embroiled in legal trouble, also won a third term, defeating Democrat Rochelle Garza.
• District 34 in Texas is back to being blue after far-right conspiracy theorist Mayra Flores, who made her mark as the first female Mexican-born member of the House, lost the seat she won in a June special election.
• Florida’s voters tilted further towards the Republicans, re-electing firebrand governor Ron DeSantis and senator Marco Rubio.
• New York’s Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, has won her election for a full term in office. A former lieutenant governor, Hochul took over leadership of the state last year after Andrew Cuomo resigned following accusations of sexual misconduct. She defeated Republican Lee Zeldin in the battle for a full term.
• Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has won re-election as Michigan’s governor, beating Republican challenger Tudor Dixon. Whitmer was the target of intense Republican attacks for her enforcement of regulations intended to curb Covid-19 after it broke out in 2020, and the Republicans hoped to oust her from office in the perennial battleground state.
• Democrat Josh Shapiro bested 2020 election denier Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s governorship race. Maryland elected the first Black governor in its history, Democrat Wes Moore.
• In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, who played a key role in Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, lost his re-election bid to Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who put defending democracy at the centre of his campaign. Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state who staunchly defended the 2020 election results, defeated Kristina Karamo, who rose to prominence after she spread false claims about fraud after ballots were counted in Detroit in 2020.
• New Mexico’s Democratic governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, has won re-election, defeating Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti.
• Organizers claimed victory after Michigan voters appeared well on their way to approving a constitutional amendment that would significantly expand voting access and make it much harder for anyone to try and overturn the results of an election. And in another victory for abortion rights advocates, campaigners declared victory on proposal three in Michigan – the ballot initiative looking to enshrine a constitutional right to the procedure. It follows similar, earlier victories for abortion rights measures in California and Vermont.
• Nancy Pelosi has issued a statement hailing an unexpectedly good performance by Democrats, even as votes are still being counted, saying: “While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country. As states continue to tabulate the final results, every vote must be counted as cast. Many thanks to our grassroots volunteers for enabling every voter to have their say in our democracy.”