Burnley vs Liverpool betting preview: odds and predictions
WITH Liverpool beaten only once so far, they are very much title contenders but will they be able to see off a Burnley side boosted by a fine win at Fulham on Saturday?
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⏩ Quick betting tips for Burnley vs Liverpool
Burnley vs Liverpool odds
Here are the latest match odds for Burnley vs Liverpool from our top-rated football bookmakers. Odds are subject to change.
Burnley vs Liverpool betting preview
Second-bottom hosts second-top on Boxing Day – that’s Tuesday to those who have lost track.
The festive period does traditionally throw up a shock or two but its hard to get too enthused by the hosts.
Yes, they’ve now picked up seven points from their last five games but they could easily have been two goals down at half time at Fulham at the weekend before claiming their 2-0 victory.
On the same afternoon, Liverpool were held 1-1 by Arsenal in their top-of-the-table clash but they were denied what looked a surefire penalty at Anfield and on another day may well have won.
They’ve now lost just once in 18 league games this season and bring a strong record in the head-to-head into this one, having won 12 of the sides’ last 16 meetings.
With their much-talked-about forward line, including Mo Salah, they should trouble a home defence which has the third worst expected goals against (xGA) figure.
However, the Reds’ haven’t been so good at the back and while they’ve only conceded 16 times so far, that xGA data shows they ‘should’ have let in 23.
They’ve only kept one clean sheet on the road so far and so backing them to win whilst conceding looks a decent way of getting a better price about Liverpool getting the victory most expect.
Read on for our full betting selections.
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Burnley vs Liverpool key stats
- Burnley have lost eight of their nine home games so far, while they’ve also been beaten in eight of their nine matches against teams currently in the top half of the table.
- Since Burnley’s Premier League debut in 2009, Liverpool have won 12 of the sides’ 16 meetings, losing only two.
- Only Sheffield United have scored fewer goals than Burnley in this season’s Premier League. It’s no fluke either – Burnley also have the second lowest expected goals (xG) tally.
- Liverpool have had more shots than any other top-flight team so far this season.
- Kostas Tsimikas joined the Liverpool injury list, breaking his collar bone on Saturday, so Joe Gomez is set to fill in at left-back. Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Jack Cork and Aaron Ramsey all missed out for Burnley at the weekend but, even if fit, will Vincent Kompany want to change a winning team?
Burnley vs Liverpool best bets
Find our best bets for the Burnley vs Liverpool game below. Odds for the bets are provided by the best sportsbooks per our expert reviews. Odds in the betting tips are subject to change.
Liverpool to win and both teams to score
Burnley have improved in recent weeks, avoiding defeat in three of their last five, but there’s a gulf between the sides, who sit 19th and second respectively.
Liverpool should get this job done, although it may not be a stroll in the park.
Burnley have scored in six of their nine games against the current top half (losing all bar one), while Liverpool have only kept one clean sheet on their travels – at rock-bottom Sheffield United.
Adding the BTTS element to an away victory gets some better value out of the odds-on visitors.
⚽ Back Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 31/20 with Spreadex ⚽
Virgil van Dijk 1+ shot on target
Liverpool have had more shots from set-pieces than any other Premier League side this season, while Burnley sit seventh for shots conceded in such situations.
Those numbers make van Dijk a threat in this contest and backing him for a shot on target looks a good play.
The Dutch defender has managed this in four of his last eight games, hitting 2+ in two of those matches.
Burnley, especially keeper James Trafford, struggled to defend set plays when Everton visited Turf Moor recently and further problems are anticipated.
⚽ Bet on Van Dijk 1+ shot on target at 7/4 with bet365 ⚽
Wataru Endo 2+ fouls
Endo has started Liverpool’s last six games and while it’s always difficult to predict the starting line-ups in this day and age, he’s a good bet at even money for 2+ fouls if he does make the XI.
The Japanese defensive midfielder has committed at least two fouls in nine of his last 10 starts in all competitions, with Liverpool surprisingly up in fifth for fouls in this season’s Premier League.
Admittedly Paul Tierney isn’t the best refereeing appointment – he’s below average when it comes to fouls per game – but Endo’s stats still make this bet appeal.
⚽ Back Endo 2+ fouls at evens with Sky Bet ⚽
📺 How to watch Burnley vs Liverpool
- Location: Turf Moor, Burnley, England
- Time: 17:30 GMT on Tuesday, December 26
- Where to watch: streamed live in the UK by Amazon Prime Video
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