2024 Polls: RFK Jr gets 20% in Biden-Trump three-way race

A two-day poll that finished on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 51 per cent of the 1,006 adults polled across the country backed President Joe Biden, with 49 per cent supporting his predecessor Donald Trump.

About half of all Biden backers said they were voting for the president to keep Mr Trump out of the White House rather than to give Mr Biden another term.

Meanwhile, only 38 per cent said they would vote “to support Joe Biden and his policies”.

Among those backing the ex-president, 42 per cent said they were voting in support of Mr Trump and 40 per cent said they were voting against Mr Biden.

Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr received 20 per cent in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump in a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos.

Thirty per cent backed Mr Biden in the poll, with 32 per cent supporting Mr Trump.

The online poll collected the views of 1,006 US adults across the country.

President Joe Biden would win the popular vote but narrowly lose the Electoral College to his predecessor Donald Trump if the election was held today.

The new research comes from Stack Data Strategy, showing that Mr Trump would win the Electoral College 292 to 246 with Mr Biden winning the popular vote 49 to 48 per cent.

Stack surveyed 15,000 Americans and used those results to make state-level projections, Politico notes.

Mr Trump winning is based on him winning four states– Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These were the states with the closest margins in the 2020 election. They all went from Mr Trump in 2016 to Mr Biden in 2020 and this poll sees Mr Trump take them back by small margins – 1,4 per cent in Arizona, 3,3 in Georgia, 2,3 in Pennsylvania, and 0,9 in Wisconsin.

If other candidates are added to the mix – such as independents Robert F Kennedy Jr and Cornel West, and candidates from the Green and Libertarian parties – Mr Trump also manages to win Nevada and its six electoral votes. The additional candidates together picked up 10 per cent in that state.

The survey also showed Mr Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

But Mr Biden bested Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, winning the Electoral College 359 to 179.

In the four tight states projected to go to Mr Trump, when respondents are asked about “other” candidates, they pick up a smaller share of the vote – 4 per cent in Arizona, 2,6 in Georgia, 3,1 in Pennsylvania, and 3.2 in Wisconsin.

But when respondents were asked specifically about Mr Kennedy, Mr West, and the availabilities of third parties, the support rose to between eight and 11 per cent.

After the third Republican debate last week, voters are re-assessing how they feel about the remaining GOP candidates.

Ron DeSantis is polling at approximately 14 per cent.

Nikki Haley is polling at approximately 8.8 per cent.

Chris Christie is polling at approximately 2.8 per cent.

Vivek Ramaswamy is polling at approximately 5 per cent.

Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum and Ryan Binkely are all polling below 1 per cent.

So far, former president Donald Trump remains far ahead of any other candidate in national polls with a +44 point average over his political opponents, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. 

Mr Trump did not participate in the third debate and instead hosted a rally nearby the venue where Republican candidates hashed it out.

Despite the ex-president’s opposition toward joining his fellow candidates on the stage, he has a strong lead in swing states over any other campaign – including Democrats.

Sen Tim Scott (R-SC) announced on Fox News on Sunday evening that he would suspend his presidential campaign after he failed to gain traction in the Republican primary.

Mr Scott made the announcement on the programme of former congressman Trey Gowdy, who came to Congress the same year he did in 2011.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott announced he would be suspending his 2024 presidential campaign on Sunday, saying it was not the time.

“I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘not now, Tim.’” Mr Scott told Fox News.

For the months leading up to Mr Scott’s suspension, his national polling numbers had struggled to materialize into something substantial.

The senator’s number consistently remained below 4 per cent throughout his entire campaign.

But they slowly declined from there.

In September, Mr Scott was under 3 per cent and dropping every week.

”The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson. Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.”

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has hit its lowest point so far this year, with one poll from Reuters/Ipsos reporting the president’s approval rating is just 39 per cent.

Approximately two months out from the first primary election, voters’ faith in Mr Biden is sinking on key issues like the economy, crime and immigration – which a majority of voters say are their biggest concerns

The economy, immigration, gun policy and voter rights are top issues for potential voters in 2024, a new CNN poll found.

Across age groups and races, the economy remains the number one concern for people. Nearly four years after the pandemic first occurred, the economy is still recovering from the devastating blow it took. Though Mr Biden has tried to reaffirm confidence in the economy with his “Bidenomics” package, voters are seemingly unconvinced it’s working.

After the economy, most people across age groups and races believe voting rights and election integrity are critical when casting their vote for president. Mr Trump is currently facing four criminal indictments, two of which are directly correlated to the January 6 attack on the Capitol and his alleged efforts to overturn 2020 election results.

Immigration is also a concern for all voters, with white non-college graduates listing it as a top issue.

For voters 18 – 24 years old, gun policy is the second-most important issue. The US has seen a large number of mass shootings this year. Gun violence is one of the leading causes of death in children in the US.

Climate change is also a top issue for young voters.

In a potential matchup between ex-president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, Mr Trump has a two-point lead.

Approximately 49 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Mr Trump over Mr Biden, who only received 45 per cent favourability, according to a new CNN poll.

The new survey also found that Mr Biden is losing steam with voters as his approval rating drops to 39 per cent – the lowest point this year. Potential voters indicated they are concerned about the economy, which they believe Mr Biden is doing a poor job of maintaining.

Lack of confidence in the economy and state of the US has led to issues with Mr Biden’s credibility.

Even in matchups against other potential Republican candidates, like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, Mr Biden falls short.