Ukraine-Russia latest news: Europe closest to war for 70 years, minister warns

Bombs could land on Ukrainian cities within “minutes” of Russian president Vladimir Putin giving an invasion order, the UK armed forces minister has said.

James Heappey said he was warning UK citizens to leave the country while commercial means were available as there was now a “greater imminence” of a Russian attack.

He told Sky News: “This isn’t a warning about something that could happen in three months’ time, this isn’t a warning that will be followed by further warnings because greater imminence has been reached.

“This is a warning because minutes after Putin gives the order, missiles and bombs could be landing on Ukrainian cities, and that means British citizens should leave now whilst they have the opportunities to do so.”

The UK and more than a dozen other countries have told their citizens to leave Ukraine as western powers said that an invasion could take place imminently.

The US said yesterday that Russia could invade at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack. Moscow denies any such plans and has accused the West of “hysteria”.

A Russian attack on Ukraine could take place with “no notice”, a UK defence minister said.

James Heappey, the armed forces minister, said he fears that “we are closer than we’ve been on this continent” to war “for 70 years”.

He said Russia was well enough prepared for an invasion that it had gone beyond diplomatic showmanship.

He told the BBC: “All of the combat enablers are in place and my fear is that if all of this was just about a show to win leverage in diplomacy that doesn’t require the logistics, the fuel, the medical supplies, the bridging assets, the unglamorous stuff that actually makes an invasion force credible, but doesn’t attract headlines. Yet all of that is now in place too.

“That’s why there’s real urgency to the diplomatic negotiations that continue. That is why this is a very serious time for the whole world, really, to come together and to send a message to Russia that this is behaviour that will not be accepted and that we stand behind Ukraine, and that the financial sanctions if he were to cross the border would be absolutely profound.”

Relations between Russia and the US are “lying on the floor”, Russian media cited the Kremlin as saying as Western diplomatic efforts in the Ukraine crisis are stepped up.

Joe Biden spoke with Vladimir Putin on the phone on Saturday after the US claimed to have intelligence that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, told Russia’s RIA news agency: “The heads of state are in dialogue, there is dialogue on other fronts.

“This is a plus because you know that just a couple of years ago there was zero dialogue, there were no such contacts whatsoever.

“But on the rest, unfortunately, in bilateral relations one can only talk about negatives. We are at a very, very low point. They are actually lying on the floor.”

Amid buildup of Russian troops on its borders, Ukraine may give up its bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) in order to avoid a war with Russia.

“We might – especially being threatened like that, blackmailed by that, and pushed to it,” Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, told BBC Ukraine when asked if the country would change its position on seeking to join Nato.

His remarks come as Russia has amassed troops on Ukraine’s borders, leading to fears of an imminent Russian invasion.

While Ukraine is not a Nato member, it was promised in 2008 that it will join the North Atlantic military alliance if given an opportunity.

According to Russia, Ukraine’s growing proximity with the alliance could make it a launch pad for Nato missiles targeted at Russia.

A large naval build up near the Black and Mediterranean seas is posing another threat to Ukraine near Crimea.

The Ukrainian peninsula had been annexed by Russia in 2014.

Andrii Klymenko of Ukraine’s Institute of Black Sea Strategic Studies told Yahoo News that 12 landing ships had appeared in the Black Sea on Friday.

“This is an unprecedented Russian naval presence,” he said. Such a concentration, he added, hasn’t been seen since the Cold War ended three decades ago.

“On Saturday, Black Sea exercises started with more than 30 Russian military ships,” according to Black Sea News.

This included submarines and cruisers while drills using aviation and land troops in manoeuvres are also underway.

The manoeuvres, which officially began on 13 February and are scheduled to continue till 22 February, “will launch missile and bomb strikes” against sea, air and coastal targets, according to Russian state-owned TV network Zvezda.

Asian shares registered a steep fall on Monday amid fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine as oil prices soared to a seven-year-high.

Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.2 per cent, while Chinese blue chips fell 0.7 per cent, reported Reuters.

In addition, Eurostoxx 50 futures shed 1.6 per cent and FTSE futures 0.5 per cent.

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.3 per cent and Nasdaq futures 0.2 per cent after steep losses on Friday.

Fears of an invasion also drove oil prices to their highest in seven years.Brent crude futures was at $95.56 (£70.57) a barrel, up $1.12, or 1.2%.

Earlier in the day, it has hit a peak of $96.16, the highest since October 2014.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.28, or 1.4%, to $94.38 a barrel, hovering near a session-high of $94.94, the loftiest since September 2014.

OANDA analyst Edward Moya said: “If … troop movement happens, Brent crude won’t have any trouble rallying above the $100 level.”

“Oil prices will remain extremely volatile and sensitive to incremental updates regarding the Ukraine situation.”

The White House has pledged the US will respond “quickly and decisively” to further Russian aggression towards Ukraine.

Tweeting yesterday evening, the US embassy in Kiev said: “During a conversation with President Zelensky today, President Biden made it clear that the United States will respond quickly and decisively to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. Leaders agree on the need for continued diplomacy and deterrence in response to the military build-up.”

Amid international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine, German chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to fly to Kiev on Monday to meet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The visit is meant to show solidarity and help avert a war in Europe amid warnings of a Russian invasion.

On Sunday, Mr Scholz said: “[These trips are] about how we can find a way to ensure peace in Europe,” reported Reuters.

He added that the Russian build-up of around 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border represented a “very, very serious threat”.

A German government source said that Mr Scholz will gauge along with the Ukrainian president about where they stand and how they can advance dialogue.

The visit comes after “Normandy Format” talks between representatives of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany last week.

Mr Scholz is expected to fly to Moscow on Tuesday to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin.

We should hope against hope that Russia will not invade Ukraine, but we must be realistic that it may do so, writes Hamish McRae. If it does, there will be great human costs and massive political consequences. Others can comment better about these. Here, what can we sensibly say about what this might mean for the world economy?